The Philippines Per Capita GDP Has Reached An All-Time High Under Duterte

Erik De Castro | Reuters
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte

The average Filipino is doing better under Duterte.

When it comes to Per Capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP), that is. That’s a measure of the total output of a country divided by the number of people in that country.

The Philippines’ Per Capita GDP was last recorded at an all-time high 2891.36 US dollars in 2017, according to Tradingeconomics.com. That’s well above the average of 1627.98 USD for the period 1960-2017.

Also, Filipinos are doing better under Duterte when Per Capita GDP is adjusted by purchasing power parity (PPP). That measure, too, reached a record 7599.19 US dollars in 2017, well above the average of 4969.71 USD for the period 1990-2017.

Source: Tradingeconomics.com 10/26/2018

To be fair, comparing Per Capita GDP in USD for different time periods is a tricky exercise. Numbers can be distorted by population growth and currency fluctuations. For instance, the climb in the Philippines per capita GDP has been helped by a slow-down in population growth. It's also an ongoing trend that can be traced back to the Aquino administration, which brought macroeconomic stability to the country.

“Aquino is delegating power to competent technocrats and seems to understand what needs to be done to get the lights back on,”  wrote Ruchir Sharma in Break Out Nations (W.W. Norton Company, 2012).

Macroeconomic stability has helped the Philippines economy demonstrate a great deal of resilience in recent years. At the end of 2017, it grew at an annual 6.9% in the September quarter. That’s the strongest growth since the third quarter 2016. And the Philippines’ economy was still growing at 6% at the end of 2018.

Tracing Per Capita GDP growth back to the Aquino period certainly raises the question: who should take credit for the record Per Capita GDP, Aquino or Duterte?

Meanwhile, a recent McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) study places the Philippines among the few emerging market economies that are well-prepared to achieve sustained growth over the next decade.

That's thanks to a rise in Gross Fixed Capital Formation (investment). It reached 695414.08 PHP Million in the second quarter of 2018 from roughly 450,000 PHP Million in July of 2015--well above the 303138.16 PHP Million for the period 1998 until 2018, and an all-time high.

Still, the Philippines’ per capita GDP is equivalent to 23% of the world's average, which makes Filipinos poor. And a resurgence in the cost of living in recent months makes things worse for them. The Philippines' annual inflation rate rose to 6.7% in September of 2018 from 6.4% in the August, and compared to market expectations of 6.8%.

That’s the highest reading since February 2009, thanks to soaring food, transportation and utility prices.

Inflation, together with revolution and corruption, has suspended Philippines economic progress before, and it will do it again, if they aren’t addressed effectively.

So rather than celebrating record per capita GDP, Duterte’s administration should keep an eye on the price of bread and rice.


Panos Mourdoukoutas
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I’m Professor and Chair of the Department of Economics at LIU Post in New York. I also teach at Columbia University. I’ve published several articles in professional journals and magazines, including Barron’s, The New York Times, Japan Times, Newsday, Plain Dealer, Edge Singa...

My recent book The Ten Golden Rules Of Leadership is published by AMACOM, and can be found here.

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Duterte signed “Free Tuition Fee law” for all State Universities and Colleges- ₱100 billion Budget

[Free Tertiary Education] Free Tuition fee law in the Philippines

Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education Law for bottom 20% poor but deserving Filipino students

- Free tuition fee for all state colleges and universities
- Free Library access
- Free  ID
- Free laboratory access

President Duterte has signed into law the Universal Access to Quality Tertiary Education Act which grants free tuition to all state universities and colleges (SUCs) in the country.

This despite the suggestion of a veto by Budget Secretary Ben Diokno as the government cannot afford to shoulder its cost estimated to be around ₱100 billion.

During the Mindanao Hour press briefing Friday morning, Senior Deputy Executive Secretary Menardo Guevarra said that the President signed the bill Thursday night.

“The enrolled bill came to the Office of the President nearly 30 days ago and during that period, there had been a lot of discussions and study about the bill because of its heavy budgetary implication” he explained.

Guevarra said that free tertiary education in SUCs is a very strong pillar or cornerstone of Duterte’s social development policy and that the President was still trying to figure out the best possible solution regarding the bill.

“So we weighed everything and came to the conclusion that the long-term benefits that will be derived from a well-developed tertiary education on the part of the citizenry will definitely outweigh any short-term budgetary challenges,” he said.

The Palace official also said that whether or not economic managers are for the passing of the bill, the more important thing now is to find the budgetary allocation for the program.

“Everyone, including the economic managers, will have to focus their attention on funding for this program because this will have to be implemented soon,” Guevarra said, adding that the SUC law will be implemented on the next school year.

Since the government has already submitted the proposed 2018 national budget to Congress, Guevarra said that certain adjustments can still be made so allocation for the law can be made.

“That is really the principal responsibility of Congress when they deliberate on the budget. Right now, I have nothing very specific to say about which projects or which programs or which agency’s proposed budget might be affected,” he said.

“If Congress is really serious in finding the appropriate funding for this free tuition program, they will have to find the necessary sources for this particular program,” he added.

Guevarra also addressed the estimate of the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) that ₱ 100 billion would be needed to implement the SUC law.

“The Commission on Higher Education (CHED) thinks otherwise. The ₱ 100-billion estimate of the DBM seems to be on the very high side because that is on the basis on the assumption that all aspects of the free tuition bill will be implemented all at the same time,” he said.

The CHED estimated that ₱ 34.1 billion would be needed for the implementation of the law.

According to Guevarra, the government would only have to spend on the mandatory provisions of the bill which includes tuition and miscellaneous fees which would need around ₱ 16 billion.

Diagram of educational system in the Philippines - wes.org

The related educational expenses like books and boarding would be shouldered for “deserving 20 percent” by the CHED’s Unified Student Financial Assistance System for Tertiary Education (UniFAST) program.

“As far as I know those are the only mandatory provisions of the bill for now – the free tuition and other fees. Other fees would refer to something like library fees, ID fees, laboratory fees, and stuff like that,” Guevarra explained.

“Now as to the subsidy for related educational expenses, that is something to be processed by the UniFAST board which is supposed to have a system of priority,” he said, adding that the fund and system under the UniFAST are yet to be established.

Grade scaling for the educational system in the Philippines vs USA Education System - wes.org

“In other words, ‘yung mga talagang nangangailangan, the bottom 20 percent, will be prioritized in terms of subsidy for educational-related expenses,” he added.

The UniFAST rationalizes the allocation, utilization and client-targeting of government resources and improves access to quality higher and technical education for those who need it.

It also serves as the ultimate national human resource development mechanism and strategy that will direct beneficiaries to priority courses needed for economic growth and development. - By Argyll Cyrus Geducos from Manila Bulletin

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UN Rapporteur Agnes Callamard Speeh Makes her Incompetent for Concluding Philippines War on Drug based on hearsay

Callamard acting as local Opposition Political Party leader in the Philippines

United Nations Special Rapporteur Agnes Callamard’s early Friday Wikipedia information described her as highly paid consultant of the Philippines' opposition “Liberal Party” as she concluded her speeches without proper investigation but just taken the reports that were provided most from the liberal party groups who opposes the war on drugs in the Philippines.

Invited by the government to investigate the issue on EJK last September 2016 but refused to come and instead make a surprise visit to the Philippines to utter her conclusion against the Philippines War on Drugs without conducting a ground investigation to confirm the allegations.

Callarmard surprise visit to the Philippines is acting like a leader of the local political party to destroy the image of Duterte based on hearsays.

Malacanang on Calamard Surprise Visit

United Nations Special Rapporteur on Extrajudicial, Summary, or Arbitrary Executions Agnes Callamard is now in no position to launch an independent study on the spate of drug-related killings in the country after she talked against the war on drugs at a forum in Quezon City, a Malacañang official said on Friday.

Chief presidential legal counsel Sec. Salvador Panelo told reporters Friday that Callamard already made a conclusion based on news reports, some videos, opinions of critics, and hearsays.

“First, how did she know that that’s the way the drug operations are being conducted? What’s the basis?” Panelo said.

“She just cannot come here and read newspaper reports and hear the talks of some critics and watch some videos and make a conclusion that there is something wrong the way this government is doing its job,” he added.

Panelo said that how Callamard arrived at her conclusion was more important than the circumstances of her visit in the Philippines—whether it was on her own or through an invitation.

“What I’m questioning is the basis of her conclusion, which is based on hearsay and some reports coming from whoever and from wherever. It’s not an independent study. It’s not an objective study. It’s just a conclusion on the basis of things that she heard,” Panelo said.

But Panelo indicated that the Philippine government’s invitation to Callamard was already pointless when she already made her mind on the war on drugs.

“Alangan naman pilitin siya kung ayaw niya eh. Not only that, you know, the fact alone that she already made conclusions, I don’t think she would be competent enough or objective enough to undertake any study. She already made a conclusion, on the basis of hearsay and reports and whatever,” Panelo said.

“She was saying she read reports, she saw some videos, and on the basis of that, she made a conclusion that the operation against the drug menace in this country is wrong. How can she make that kind of conclusion when she only read the reports of some people and saw some videos?" he added.

"She has to make an independent probe or investigation on what’s happening in this country. This is precisely why the President invited her to come over. But she never responded to that," Panelo said.

While Callamard earlier said that the terms the Philippine government presented for her visit were against their Code of Conduct, Panelo said it was only fair that President Rodrigo Duterte would be able to question her conclusion.

"What the President just wanted to say after the investigation is, ‘Tell us, what’s the basis of your investigation?’ What’s wrong with asking someone making an investigation, ‘This is our conclusion.’ Then the President, ‘How did you make that conclusion? Who are the people you asked? How did you come about?’" Panelo said.

"I don’t think that’s unfair. That’s a very fair response from someone who has been investigated," he added.

International Court of Justice (ICC) whom claimed to have the authority for extrajudicial killings cases around the world has been labeled as International Caucasian Justice by the African nations for its failure to file cases on Western and European countries that committed thousands extrajudicial killings while acting as superior in issuing verdicts to the African countries as mass murderer in a form of bullying  the small and poor countries.

Several African nations have left and vacated their seats at the United Nations for distrust and integrity issues of the UN for its unfair and selective justice in issuing verdicts.

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Russia Warship in the Philippines for Joint Exercise; Draft for Defense Agreement for Duterte Visit may 25

Naval Group of Russia's Pacific Fleet Makes Port Call in Philippines' Manila for 4 days- First Joint Excercise

Philippines – Russia First Joint Exercise

Russian Warship arrived in the Philippines on Thursday for joint exercises as part of a drive for new security ties under President Rodrigo Duterte's revamped foreign policy of courting the traditional foes of Manila's top ally, Washington.

The guided-missile cruiser Varyag, accompanied by the fuel tanker ship, Pechenge, are on a four-day goodwill visit to the Philippines, the second port call by Russian warships in three months.

The move is part of what Duterte describes as a pursuit of a constitutionally mandated "independent foreign policy". He has made no secret of his grudge against the United States and has made befriending Russia and China the priority of his diversification drive.

Captain Lued Lincuna, director of the Philippine navy's public affairs, said the Philippines hoped to learn from the Russians during training activities and a demonstration of advanced equipment and weapons systems.

The schedule includes training and sports activities with the flagship vessel of the Russian Pacific fleet, plus a Russian concert in a park.

Video: Naval Group of Russia's Pacific Fleet Makes Port Call in Philippines' Manila for 4 days- First Joint Excercise

Philippines – Russia Defense Agreement

Russian commander Captain Alexsei Ulyanenko said the port call would make a "significant contribution" to strengthening relations and maintaining stability in the region.

Moscow wants to help Manila combat extremism and piracy, stepping up cooperation and training in areas where the Philippines has traditionally worked closely with its former colonial master the United States.

The relationship is expected to develop further next month when Duterte and Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin witness the signing of defense agreements in Moscow.

When Duterte met Putin for the first time last year, the Philippine leader spoke at length about what he called U.S. "hypocrisy".

Duterte has instructed his defense minister to look into how the Philippines could acquire modern military equipment from Russia, like drones, night-vision gear, sniper rifles, and even helicopters.

Duterte to visit Russia on May 25

President Rodrigo Duterte will be visiting Russia on May 25.

During his speech at the induction of newly elected officers of the Cebu Chamber of Commerce and Industry Inc., Duterte said Armed Forces of the Philippines Central Command chief Army Major General Oscar Lactao will be joining him.

"So I'm going there with Lactao, May 25," Duterte said. "[Sabi ko sa kanya,] Maganda rin ang mga Russian. Iyon lang man ang puntahan mo. Usap kami ni Putin."

[Translation: I told Lactao, "Russians are also beautiful. At least go with me for that." Putin and I will talk.]

He also reiterated Russia's commitment to helping the Philippines.

"Sabi pa ng Russia [said], "We will have everything you need, just come here,"" he added.

Improved Philippine-Russian relations

Russian Ambassador to the Philippines Igor Khovaev told CNN Philippines' "The Source" in January that Duterte's visit to Russia is a "milestone" in the ties between the two nations.

"Both the Russian and Philippine side, we need to prepare substantial and solid package of bilateral agreements on cooperation in different fields, and we are now taking necessary efforts," Khovaev said.

He also said Russian companies are willing to explore Philippine markets. He urged Philippine companies to reciprocate and explore the Russian market as well.

"We are ready to cooperate in industries of transport, energy… including the use of nuclear energy for peaceful purposes, telecommunications, agriculture, and many other fields. Both sides have a lot to offer," Khovaev said.

Economic, military agreements in the works

Economic ties between Manila and Moscow are at their infancy.

Russia has not had any foreign direct investment in the Philippines since 1999, central bank data showed.

Russia accounted for $43 million (around ₱2.17 billion) in overseas remittances last year, but it was only 0.2 percent of the total $26.9 billion (around ₱1.35 trillion) sent home by Filipinos from all over the world.

In addition, Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Ernesto Pernia said Russia committed to importing up to $2.5 billion (around ₱126 billion) worth of Philippine fruits, grains and vegetables in 2017.

Imports by Russia from the Philippines stand at $46 million (around ₱2.32 billion), according to government trade statistics.

Beyond economic links, the Philippines is also eyeing military cooperation with Russia. Defense officials have said they were looking into possible joint exercises and weapons deals with the Kremlin.

Building trust

In addition, Khovaev said he is optimistic that Filipinos would trust Russia more as the two countries build bridges.

"It's time for Filipinos to discover Russia, and vice-versa… and I have a strong belief, we'll trust each other." he said.

In a non-commissioned survey released by Pulse Asia on January 12, 38 percent of Filipinos trust Russia, while 58 percent do not.

These figures are far behind that of the United States, which has a 76 percent trust rating.

"It's a good result if we take into account so many decades of Hollywood-style Russian propaganda in your country," he said, in apparent reference to prevailing perceptions of Russia as "communist" when it was formerly known as the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics.

The Philippines has long been known as an ally of the U.S., even after it was colonized by the superpower from 1898 to 1946..With reports from Channel News Asia and CNN Philippines

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President Duterte got 91% HIGHEST TRUST RATING in Country Leader's history - 8% Undecided

RECORD-HIGH TRUST RATING. President Rodrigo Duterte is trusted by nearly all Filipinos as he begins his term. Photo by King Rodriguez/PPD

Duterte enjoys record-high 91% trust rating – Pulse Asia

MANILA, Philippines: Nearly all Filipinos trust President Rodrigo Duterte as he embarked on his term, according to the results of a Pulse Asia Research, Incorporated survey released on Wednesday, July 20.

The results of the nationwide survey conducted among 1,200 Filipinos from July 2 to 8, showed that 91% of Filipinos trust Duterte, while less than half a percent distrust him, and 8% are undecided on whether or not to trust him.

“President Rodrigo R. Duterte begins his stint as the country’s 16th president with an overwhelming majority of his constituents expressing trust in him (91%) and practically no one distrusting him (0.2%). The rest of Filipinos (8%) cannot say if they trust or distrust President Duterte,” Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes said.

Former president Benigno Aquino III used to hold the record of the highest level of public trust in the Pulse Asia trust survey first conducted in 1999. In a survey held during a similar period in Aquino's term – July 1 to 11, 2010 – Aquino had a trust rating of 85%.

Data from Pulse Asia Research, Inc

Among geographical locations, Duterte earned the highest trust rating in his bailiwick, Mindanao (97%). Among socioeconomic classes, trust for Duterte is highest among Class D and the poorest Class D, both at 92%.

In a statement, Palace Communications Secretary Martin Andanar said Duterte’s 91%-trust rating during his first week in office “is a humbling reminder that the genuine and meaningful change that our people aspire for is now being felt.”

“This expression of confidence, therefore, shall serve as an inspiration to the Duterte administration to continuously make a real difference and make our people’s lives better, safer, and healthier,” Andanar said.

A Pulse Asia survey conducted in early July also shows that a 'sizeable majority' of Filipinos trust Vice President Leni Robredo

SIZEABLE MAJORITY TRUST. Vice President Leni Robredo enjoys a 62% trust rating in the July 2016 Pulse Asia survey. RAPPLER.com

The survey results also showed that 62% of Filipinos – a “sizeable majority,” according to Holmes – trust the Vice President, while 11% distrust her, and 27% are undecided on whether or not to trust her.

“Most Filipinos – regardless of geographic location and socioeconomic status – say they trust Vice-President Robredo (58% to 72% and 53% to 64%, respectively),” Holmes said.

Among geographical areas, Robredo got her highest trust rating from the Visayas (72%), and among socioeconomic classes, from Class D (64%). Indecision on whether to trust the Vice President is highest in Mindanao (32%) and among the well-off class ABC (35%).

Robredo thanked her countrymen for the overwhelming "vote of confidence."

"We are overwhelmed by the outpouring of support from our fellow Filipinos. From 1% in the pre-election surveys to 35.1% – and now, a trust rating of 62%," she said in a statement.

The survey showed that the primary sentiment toward the Chief Justice is one of indecision, as 42% of Filipinos are undecided on whether or not to trust her. But there are more Filipinos who trust Sereno than distrust her (35% vs 19%).

“Big plurality indecision figures are posted by the Supreme Court Chief Justice in the Visayas (43%) and Class E (46%). On the other hand, the latter receives practically the same trust and indecision ratings in Metro Manila (40% versus 37%), the rest of Luzon (36% versus 46%), Mindanao (38% versus 36%), Class ABC (37% versus 50%), and Class D (38% versus 39%),” Holmes said.

During and immediately before the survey period, among the major news were the oath-taking of Duterte and Robredo, Cabinet appointments including Robredo as housing chief, cases filed against Aquino in connection with the Disbursement Acceleration Program and the Mamasapano clash, and the spate of drug-related killings in the country and calls to probe these.

Around this time, Duterte also expressed his willingness to have bilateral talks and joint exploration with China in the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea), Holmes said.

The nationwide survey has a ± 3% error margin at the 95% confidence level; subnational estimates for each of the geographic areas covered in the survey (i.e., Metro Manila, the rest of Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao) have a ± 6% error margin, also at 95% confidence level.

The July survey also polled the respondents on their expectations of the new administration. (READ: Inflation, jobs edge out crime as Filipinos' top worries – poll) – Rappler.com

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