Philippines unveil 72 billion-peso ($1.7 billion) Stimulus Package

Asian policy makers are bolstering efforts to protect their economies from weakening global growth, as Indonesia unexpectedly cut interest rates and the Philippines unveiled a stimulus plan.

Bank Indonesia lowered its reference rate by a quarter of a percentage point to 6.5 percent yesterday, defying the predictions of all 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Philippine President Benigno Aquino announced a 72 billion-peso ($1.7 billion) spending package today as his government cut growth estimates, while Singapore's central bank is forecast by economists to say this week that it will slow or end its currency appreciation.

"We want to be ahead of the curve in anticipating the impact of the global economy," Perry Warjiyo, Bank Indonesia's director of economic research, said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. "It will impact through the region, and we will see there is a decelerating trend of inflation and a downward revision to economic growth. Sooner or later, central banks need to rebalance the preference of their monetary policy response."

Emerging-market nations have turned from fighting inflation to supporting growth as a struggling U.S. recovery and deepening European crisis threaten the global economy. Brazil, Turkey, Russia and Pakistan have cut borrowing costs in 2011, while Asian countries from the Philippines to South Korea have refrained from further rate increases in recent weeks.

Taking Insurance

"It's primarily because of the weaker global economic backdrop that they are taking out some insurance against the global economic headwinds," said Leif Eskesen, a Singapore- based economist at HSBC Holdings Plc.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of stocks has slumped 15.4 percent this year as investors pare bets on emerging markets. Some Asian currencies have tumbled against the dollar in the same period, led by a slide of about 9 percent in the Indian rupee, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Indonesia's rupiah has weakened 3.5 percent in the past month. Bank Indonesia said yesterday it has sufficient foreign- exchange reserves to support the currency.

"We are confident we can stabilize the market," Warjiyo said in the interview today.

Asian nations from Malaysia to the Philippines are shifting their focus to shielding growth even as elevated inflation prompts policy makers in countries such as Vietnam and India to persist with monetary tightening.

India's industrial output rose 4.1 percent in August from a year earlier, less than the median 4.7 percent estimate in a Bloomberg News survey, a report showed today.

Philippine Spending will boost

Aquino said today the additional spending he authorized for the stimulus package includes 5.5 billion pesos for infrastructure. The Philippine government cut its growth forecasts for the Southeast Asian nation for 2011 and 2012.

"If the fiscal stimulus does its job, this should give the necessary push to keep our economic growth in a solid upward trajectory," central bank Governor Amando Tetangco said today. The Philippines has sufficient liquidity, a stable exchange rate and a "manageable" inflation outlook along with "fiscal space" to help support economic growth, he said in an e-mail reply to questions.

Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas will consider global developments, including Indonesia's rate cut and the slump in Philippine exports in next week's policy meeting, Tetangco said.

"In most jurisdictions, inflation seems to have become less of a pressing concern," he said. "The weakness in advanced economies is seen to weigh more on emerging economies than previously anticipated."

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The Philippines Offers the Best Value Investing

Philippines Mining Boom

The Philippines will attract $18 billion in mining investments over the next five years as global commodity prices soar.

Mining output had already spiked 31 percent year on year in the six months to June to P63.92 billion ($1.48 billion), according to Environment and Natural Resources Secretary Ramon Paje.

A new mining law allowed foreign investments in 2005, and high metals prices were drawing even more investor interest.

“In terms of investments, the aggregate amount of $3.835 billion has been invested in the sector over the last six years. Total investments are projected to reach $18 billion by 2016,” he told a mining conference in September 2011.

The Philippines has an untouched mineral wealth estimated by Heffernan Capital Management at over $1 trillion, valuable metals like copper, gold and chromate deposits are among the biggest in the world.

Mining has had a checkered history in The Philippines, environmental issues, foreign investment restrictions, and accidents have slowed the industry for decades.

Ramon Paje said with just 30 major mines in operation, the Philippines was still not producing enough to take advantage of climbing gold, nickel, copper, iron and chromite prices.

Seven major projects should boost both mining investment and output over the next few years.

Xstrata PLC, LON:XTA $5.9 billion Tampakan project in the southern Philippines, one of the largest undeveloped copper-gold deposits in the Western Pacific, should start producing in 2016.

Tampakan project is estimated to yield an average of 375,000 tonnes per annum of copper and 360,000 ounces per annum of gold in concentrate over a 17 year life of mine.

Japan’s Sumitomo Metals, Australia’s Oceana Gold, and Britain’s FCF Minerals also plan to go ahead with separate nickel, copper-gold, and gold-molybdenum projects, according to Paje.

The three projects have a combined investment value of more than $1.8 billion.

Chamber of Mines of the Philippines president Philip Romualdez also told the conference President Benigno Aquino’s recent state visit to China drew $2 billion in mining commitments.

Economy starts bubbling

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has slightly lowered its 2011 growth forecast for the Philippine economy amidst subdued government spending and exports, but increased public and private investment should see a pickup in economic activity next year.

In its latest Asian Development Outlook 2011 (ADO), ADB trimmed its gross domestic product (GDP) forecast for the year to 4.7%, from 5.0% seen in April.

Growth for 2012 is projected to pick up to 5.1%, with brighter prospects seen for investments, which since 2010 have been a major contributor to GDP growth.

“Job creation remains lackluster, with the youth unemployment rate more than double the overall jobless rate,” said ADB Chief Economist Changyong Rhee.

“Further increases in investment along with policy and governance reforms are needed to boost jobs.”

Government spending fell back in the first half of 2011 after high election and typhoon-linked outlays in 2010 with government agencies taking a more cautious stance amidst an anti-corruption drive.

However, private investment grew strongly, while private domestic consumption also increased, supported by a firmer labor market and remittances from overseas workers.

Merchandise export growth, in contrast, was weaker than expected. Electronics, which make up about half the economy’s exports, are still affected by insipid global demand and supply chain disruptions linked to the earthquake in Japan.

Inflation averaged 4.8% over the first eight months, driven by higher food and oil prices. In response, the central bank raised policy interest rates and banks’ reserve requirements twice. Net portfolio investments in the first seven months remained high, helping to push stock prices to record highs in August, but foreign direct investment remains subdued with delays in bids for planned infrastructure projects.

For 2012, increased investment supported by upgrades in sovereign credit ratings and resilient consumer spending will help GDP growth to pick up. Inflation forecasts are retained at 4.9% for 2011 and 4.3% in 2012, assuming that global oil and food prices moderate as expected.

“The Philippine Development Plan 2011-2016 focuses on improvements in the business environment to raise investment and employment with higher outlays on infrastructure supported by public-private partnerships,” said Neeraj Jain, Country Director for ADB’s Philippines Country Office.

‘Some of the public-private partnership infrastructure projects that have been planned must get under way to achieve the growth we forecast for 2012.”

Undervalued Real Estate in the Philippines

Foreign investors looking to invest in real estate-related businesses have ranked Manila as their last choice among various key cities in the Asia-Pacific.

According to the Emerging Trends in Real Estate Asia Pacific 2011 survey conducted by the Urban Land Institute (ULI), global real estate investors gave Manila a score of 4.56 points out of a possible 9, placing the city a few points below “fair” and somewhere within the realms of “abysmal.”

Topping the survey was Singapore with a score of 5.96 points, followed by Shanghai with 5.87, Mumbai with 5.79, and Hong Kong with 5.70.

In an interview with the Inquirer, ULI global trustee and South Asia chairman Simon Treacy said the Philippines, in general, was suffering from a negative image, prompting investors in publicly listed real estate firms to bypass the country when deciding on where to allocate their funds.

“Manila is at the bottom of the pack because the Philippines hasn’t gone to the next level. The country’s image hasn’t really improved. Even with the new administration, there’s still a negative perception of the country,” Treacy said.

“The Philippines rarely ranks when it comes to investment allocations. Since the Philippines doesn’t get a lot of airplay, its real estate prospects become undervalued. Marketing is very important, on a national level, because not a lot of real estate investors look to the Philippines when deciding where to put their capital,.”

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Charoen Pok-phand Group will Invest ₱1.45 billion in the Phl

Investment: Thai agriculture firm Charoen Pok-phand (CP) Group will be investing ₱1.45 billion in the Philippines and will hire 1,800 more employees while the Siam Cement Group (SCG) said they will infuse an additional P1 billion to expand its operations in the country, the Department of Trade and Industry (DTI) announced yesterday.

CP Group and SCG are just two of the large conglomerates which committed to invest in the Philippines when President Aquino together with some of his cabinet members including Trade Secretary Gregory L. Domingo visited Thailand last month.

CP Foods PLC president and CEO Adirek Sripratak expressed their commitment to further invest and introduce technology to aid the Filipino farmers. The CP Group intends to pour in P 1.45 billion worth of investment in the agribusiness and food industry. CP will go into shrimp and fish farming, shrimp and fish hatchery operations, feed milling, poultry and hog raising. The Group will also increase its Filipino workforce from 200 to 2,000 by 2012.

The other firm that met with the Philippine contingent was PTT Public Co, Ltd. (PCL). With the aim of promoting medical tourism in the country, the President and his economic team also met with the executives of Bumrungrad Hospital, Asia's biggest private hospital group and leader in medical tourism.

Similarly, the meeting with the SCG centered on their expansion plans in the Philippines. SCG President and CEO Kan Trakulhoon mentioned that they could bring in the "dry cement manufacturing technology" which is more efficient and environmentally friendly. Kan also pointed out that SCG is currently focusing on value added products and the expansion of its operations in ASEAN countries as part of their company's strategy. The SCG is one of the biggest foreign investors in the Philippines with more than $200 million investments, according to Kan.

Kan also said that they own several companies in the Philippines engaged in manufacturing activities such as kraft paper (United Pulp and Paper Co.), concrete roof tiles (CPAC Mornier Philippines), ceramic tiles and bathroom fixtures (Mariwasa Manufacturing Inc.).

"Mariwasa in the Philippines is already running on full capacity and there are plans to expand the facilities of Mariwasa," Kan said. The company also plans to put up a P1-billion box plant to support their kraft paper manufacturing business in the Philippines.

 

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Philippine Export growth rises to 19% $4.3 Billion in April 2011

Business & Economy: Philippines - Merchandise exports rose by an annual 19.1 percent in April 2011, their fastest growth rate this year, as shipments to Japan remained strong despite the natural and nuclear disasters there,  as announced by the Govt last Thursday June 9, 2011.

The Philippines’ export bill rose to $4.3 Billion Dollars in April from $3.611 billion a year ago, after the 4.1 percent annual rise in March, data from the National Statistics Office showed.

Month on month, however, April exports were down 1.2 percent from March’s $4.353 billion.

Electronics shipments, which dominate exports, fell 2.1 percent from last year, the third successive monthly decline. Electronics made up 49.9 percent of April revenues.

Exports to Japan, the country’s top market during the month, rose 20.2 percent in April to $741.88 million. Exports to the United States, the second-biggest export destination, were down 1.3 percent from a year earlier.

Analysts said the crisis in Japan had affected trade, but the impact was limited so far, and strong growth levels are expected later this year.

“While the electronics sector suffered from the supply chain disruption following the

Japan’s earthquake... non-electronic exports have seen strong performance,” said Vincent Tsui, Standard Chartered Bank economist.

“This reflects the impact of Japan’s earthquake on headline economic growth to be much moderate, with limited impact on net exports, and trade performance set to rebound in the upcoming months as Japan’s manufacturers gradually report restoration of production facilities, this should support revival of processing trade in electronic products going forward.”

“Surprisingly, exports to Japan climbed 20.2 percent year-on-year, though slipped on the month, and we expect the slowdown in purchases from the key export destination to reflect in the rest of the quarter,” added Radhika Rao, economist at Forecast Pte, Singapore.

Exports are estimated to climb between nine percent to ten percent this year, and 12 percent next year. Imports are expected to rise 17 percent to 18 percent in 2011, and 18 percent in 2012. Exports grew 34 percent and imports 27 percent in 2010.

The Semiconductor and Electronics Industries in the Philippines is still hopeful of hitting at least the lower end of its export growth target of eight percent to 12 percent this year, but the head of the industry group has said it would be difficult to achieve.

The Philippines provides about 10 percent of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing services, including for mobile phone chips and micro processors.

Other top Philippine exports include garments and accessories, wood furniture, vehicle parts, coconut oil, and tropical fruits.

Exports account for about two-fifths of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), based on expenditure terms.

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Net FDI Investment in the Philippines Inflows surge 142% in Q1 - BSP

The Banco Central Sa Pilipinas / Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported  June 9, 2011 that net foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows surged 142 percent in March as equity infusion more than doubled while withdrawals declined.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said that net FDI inflows amounted to $167 million Dollar in March or $98 million lower than the $69 million inflows booked in the same month last year.

"All FDI components yielded positive balances during the month," Tetangco stressed.

Data showed that equity placements jumped 113 percent to $64 million Dollar in March from $30 million in the same month last year while withdrawals slowed down by 47 percent to $18 million from $34 million.

The net inflow of other capital account consisting largely of intercompany borrowing between foreign direct investors and their subsidiaries or affiliates in the Philippines jumped 146.2 percent to $96 million in March from $39 million in the same period last year while reinvested earnings fell 26.5 percent to $25 million from $34 million.

In all, Tetangco said net FDI inflows retreated by 16.6 percent to $471 million in the first quarter of the year from $565 million in the same period last year due to the tensions in Middle East and North African (MENA) states, the debt crisis in Europe, and the disasters in Japan.

"Investors remained cautious on account of the uncertainties brought about by the ongoing sovereign debt problems in Europe, the political unrest in the MENA region as well as the disasters that struck Japan," the BSP chief stressed.

Equity placements retreated by 7.6 percent to $121 million from January to March compared to $131 million in the same period last year while withdrawals plunged 53.5 percent to $40 million from $86 million.

Data showed that reinvested earnings plummeted 38.3 percent to $113 million from $183 million while other capital fell 17.8 percent to $277 million from $337 million.

FDI inflows retreated by 12.7 percent to $1.71 billion last year from $1.96 billion in 2009 as equity placements plunged 42.5 percent to $1.15 billion while equity withdrawals increased by 10.8 percent to $307 million.

The drop was attributed to the decline in equity capital investments in new and existing projects as investor sentiment was generally marked by cautiousness and uncertainties surrounding the sovereign debt crisis in some parts of Europe, geopolitical tensions in Korea, asset price bubble and overheating concerns in fast growing emerging markets.

Likewise, the BSP explained that large-scale investments arising from the privatization of a local power corporation and the acquisition of shares of a local beverage manufacturing firm were recorded in 2009.

These included the investment made by China's largest electricity provider State Grid Corp. and Monte Oro Grid Resources Corp. in state-owned National Transmission Corp. (Transco) that bagged a $3.95 billion concession contract as well as the decision of Japanese brewer Kirin Holdings to acquire a stake in Manila-based San Miguel Brewery of diversified conglomerate San Miguel Corp. worth ₱ 65.8 billion.

Monetary authorities are confident that FDIs would continue to pour into the Philippines to fund projects under the Aquino administration's public private partnership (PPP) scheme.

 

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Bank loans in the Philippines up 14.2% to P 2.42 Trilion as of April 2011

Economy: The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) reported yesterday that bank lending continued to post double-digit growth in April despite the economic slowdown experienced in the first quarter of the year.

BSP Governor Amando M. Tetangco Jr. said in a statement that bank loans grew 14.2 percent to P2.423 trillion as of end-April from P2.121 trillion as of end-April last year.

“The steady growth in bank lending reflects the prevailing pace of domestic economic activity,” Tetangco stressed.

This was the fourth straight month that bank lending posted a double digit growth after expanding by 11 percent in January, 12.3 percent in February, 14.1 percent in March, and 14.2 percent in April.

Economic managers through the Cabinet level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) see the country’s domestic output as measured by the gross domestic product (GDP) growing between seven percent and eight percent this year and next year.

The country’s GDP posted a surprising growth of 7.6 percent last year after slackening to 1.1 percent in 2009 from 3.8 percent in 2008 due to the full impact of the global financial crisis.

As expected, the country’s GDP growth slowed down to 4.9 percent in the first quarter of the year from the revised 8.4 percent in the same quarter last year due to government underspending as well as the weak global trade.

Despite the economic slowdown, loans extended to productive activities grew 15.7 percent to P2.187 trillion as of end-April from P1.899 trillion in the same period last year as corporate borrowers sourced more loans from banks to bankroll their expansion programs.

In terms of growth, data showed that loans to the mining and quarrying sector posted the biggest growth of 74.2 percent followed by the electricity, gas, and water with 47.3 percent, and the manufacturing sector with 19.5 percent.

In terms of amount, the manufacturing sector got the biggest share with P406.18 billion followed by the real estate, lending and business services with P385.9 billion; the agriculture, hunting, and fisheries sector with P344.38 billion; wholesale and retail trade sector with P269.1 billion; and the electricity, gas, and water sector with P215.3 billion.

Tetangco also reported that the growth in the loans extended for household consumption was steady at 12.9 percent to P199.41 billion in end-April from P176.59 billion in the same month last year.

Data showed that credit card loans went up by 7.6 percent to P120.5 billion from P111.95 billion while auto loans jumped 27.3 percent to P62.2 billion from P48.86 billion.

The BSP chief pointed out that authorities would ensure appropriate monetary and financial conditions for continued credit expansion while promoting the BSP’s primary mandate of maintaining price stability.

“Going forward, the BSP will contiue to provide the appropriate credit conditions to support its primary mandates of maintaining monetarya and financial stability ,” Tetangco added.

A BSP survey showed companies are still planning to expand their operations and hire more workers in the Philippines this year despite the projected easing in economic growth this year.

BSP director for Department of Economic Statistics Rosabel Guerrero said one of every four respondents of the Business Expectations Survey (BES) for the second quarter 2011 indicated plans to expand their operations.

“About one for every four respondents in the industry sector ir 24.7 percent indicated expansion plans for the third quarter,” Guerrero stressed.

However, she explained that the percentage of respondents that signified their intention to expand their operations went down to 24.7 percent in the second quarter of the year from 33.9 percent in the first quarter.

In terms of Employment Outlook Index of the survey, Guerrero said the number of respondents who expected to continue hiring in the third quarter declined to 14.5 percent in the second quarter from 23 percent in the first quarter

 

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New Philippines digital plan to highlight National Information & Communications Technology ICT Month

The celebration of National ICT Month is mandated under Presidential Proclamation No. 1521 (Series of 2008), declaring every month of June as National ICT Month.

The month-long celebration features events and activities organized by government and the private sector.

For its part, the CICT, together with various industry associations, will be holding the National ICT Summit, which will feature the official launch of the Philippine Digital Strategy (PDS) 2011-2016 and the launch of a limited edition Commemorative Stamp marking National ICT Month 2011.

Another major event is the celebration of the 40th Anniversary of the establishment of the National Computer Center (NCC), a component agency of the CICT.

Several milestones have been achieved for the ICT sector, many of these bringing prestige to the country. According to “the Global Location Trends 2010 Report” of IBM Global Business Services, the Philippines is now the world leader in terms of jobs for shared services and business process and outsourcing (BPO) services.

The IT-BPO industry, through the Business Processing Association of the Philippines, has provided more than 525,000 jobs as of December 2010, about 79,000 new jobs created representing an increase of about 24 percent from the previous year.

The increase in employment for this industry can also be attributed to the success of the Next Wave Cities initiative, a program which develops cities as alternative destinations for BPO investments.

Cities such as Davao, Iloilo, Bacolod and Sta. Rosa, Laguna are now in the roster of preferred IT-BPO locations, due to the success of this program.

A significant activity this June is the launch of the Philippine Digital Strategy on the theme “Transformation 2.0: A Digitally Empowered Nation.”

The Philippine Digital Strategy 2011-2016 aims to contribute to the Aquino administration’s “Social Contract with the Filipino People”, mainly by leveraging the use of ICT for national development.

The PDS identifies four strategic thrusts, namely: 1) transparent government and efficient services delivery, 2) Internet opportunities for all, 3) investing in people: digital literacy for all, and 4) ICT industry and business innovation for national development.

The strategy presents a renewed vision for ICT and its importance in transforming Philippine society into a competitive force in the global digital economy by the year 2016.

The PDS is also aligned with the principles and thrusts of the ASEAN Information and Communications Technology Masterplan (AIM) 2015, which was adopted in January 2011. AIM 2015 was developed to serve as a guiding document to advance ASEAN regional ICT cooperation.

 

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Chinese firms urged to locate BPO functions in Philippines

The Board of Investments is urging Chinese companies to put up business process outsourcing facilities in the Philippines, so that they can take advantage of the support that highly skilled English-speaking BPO personnel can provide for their businesses.

Coming from a recent investment promotion trip to China, BoI managing head Cristino Panlilio said Chinese companies would benefit from offshoring some company functions to the Philippines, especially those that China still had to improve.

“China is starting to bone up on its service exports, so we’re giving them tips and strategic recommendations on how to make their service export industry more competitive,” he said.

Certain banking and financial functions, for example, could be done out of the Philippines for China’s overseas clients, he related.

“The Chinese market is big, and it needs strong support from English-speaking countries like the Philippines to serve its clients in the West. What they can do is move some business functions here, then just move these back to China when they’ve already built their capabilities,” Panlilio said.

“Like in banking, for example. China’s banking capabilities are still not on par with the world’s best. The Philippines can help in that area. We can also do animation and just about any service. A lot of companies in China need BPO services,” he added.

Should Chinese firms decide to bring their BPO business into the country, he said as much as a third of local BPO operations could be servicing Chinese companies.

In an earlier interview, Business Processing Association of the Philippines executive director for information and research Gillian Joyce Virata said the local BPO industry was keen on entering new markets.

Not wanting to rely almost solely on the United States for its business, she related that the BPO sector was pushing to enter new markets such as the United Kingdom and Asia-Pacific.

“Because of the growth of the Asia-Pacific region, there’s now also a big demand (for BPO services). We’re trying to capitalize on our language capabilities. The biggest demand is for Mandarin, Japanese, Thai, Bahasa, and Korean,” she said.

 

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WORLD Bank ranked the Philippines among world's top service exporters

The World Bank has ranked the Philippines among the best performers in the services exports, particularly in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector, but urged further reforms in the travel and tourism sector if the country intends to sustain growth moving forward.

World Bank senior trade economist Sebastian Saez said in a report that the services sector depends on human capital, the quality of the telecommunications network, and the quality of institutions.

“The experience of exporting outsourced business services in the Philippines shows that by creating an enabling environment where the private sector can deploy its creativity, developing countries can reap the benefits that services exports opportunities are opening,” Saez added.

The Philippine experience shows that services are a viable option for export diversification, he said, adding that trade in goods is no longer the only vehicle to diversify exports for developing countries.

Services exports as a percentage of total exports increased from nine percent in 1999 to 21 percent in 2009 in the Philippines. Its services exports rose 3.6 percent on average per year during the period, higher than that of Asia as a group, which averaged 1.5 percent per year. Unlike many developing countries, the Philippines had been a net exporter of services since 2006.

The Philippines is currently the third largest player in BPO in the world, accounting for 15 percent of the global BPO market, after India (37%) and Canada (27%).

Business Processing Association Philippines (BPAP) chairman Fred Ayala said that the BPO sector currently employs close to 500,000 people and generated about $9 billion worth of exports in 2010.

The industry’s target in terms of annual revenue is $25 billion by 2016 and a direct workforce of 1.3 million.

“There is an urgent need to develop supervisors, middle managers, and more skilled workers to respond to increasing market demand for a broadening array of knowledge-based, complex services,” Ayala said.

The World Bank report also highlights the importance of developing the tourism sector.

Tourism accounts for about nearly seven percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP), and directly employs about 3.5 million people. But the report said that tourism could contribute more to help address poverty should reforms outlined in the National Tourism Development Plan (NTDP) are effectively implemented.

The study said major impediments to tourism competitiveness are largely associated with weak ground and air transport infrastructure - roads, railways, ground transport network, and airports. Weak physical infrastructure, it says, lowers accessibility to tourism destinations and discourages private sector investments in accommodation facilities.

Tourism Undersecretary Daniel Corpuz said the government has already started to put in place important reforms that will increase tourism arrivals in the country. The Philippines implemented a liberalized air policy in selected international airports outside Metro Manila to promote greater tourism flows to the country.

“More reforms are underway to transform the Philippines into a ‘must experience destination in Asia,’” Corpuz added.

 

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Standard Chartered revised up 2011 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.7 percent

Economy: British-owned Standard Chartered Bank revised upwards its 2011 economic growth forecast for the Philippines to 5.7 percent from the original 5.4 percent.

In a research note, Standard Chartered economist Vincent Tsui said the investment bank raised the country’s GDP growth forecast to 5.7 percent instead of 5.4 percent this year due to the projected strong investment inflows in the second half.

“In anticipation of more broad-based and sustainable growth dynamics ahead, we raise our 2011 GDP forecast to 5.7 percent from 5.4 percent previously. We expect growth momentum to pick up in the second half,” he stressed.

Tsui said the investment bank raised its GDP growth forecast for the third quarter of the year to 6.4 percent instead of six percent but lowered its growth forecast in the fourth quarter to 6.8 percent instead of seven percent.

“We expect the strong investment pipeline to remain a key growth driver in the coming quarters. While we expect headline GDP growth to slow further in the second quarter due to the high base effect and temporary disruptions to electronics manufacturing from the Japan earthquake, the underlying  fundamentals of the economy remain solid. We believe headline GDP growth is set for a strong rebound in second half,” Tsui added.

He pointed out that the growth in the second half would be fuelled by investments instead of consumer spending.

“Near-term weakness aside, we believe the shift from consumer spending to business investment as the Philippines’ key growth driver deserves more market attention,” Tsui added.

The National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB) reported late last month that the country’s GDP growth slowed down to 4.9 percent in the first quarter of the year from the revised 8.4 percent in the same period last year due to weaker government spending and slow global trade. The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) was expecting a growth of between 4.8 percent and 5.8 percent for the first quarter.

“Even so, we believe the weaker headline numbers mask underlying strength in an economy that is now driven by more sustainable and balanced growth dynamics,” the economist said.

The sharp drop in government spending in the first quarter of the year helped the Aquino administration post a budget surplus of P61 billion in the first four months of the year, a complete reversal of the P131.6 billion budget deficit booked in the first four months of last year.

“This is in line with our expectation that this year’s budget deficit will narrow to P256 billion due to fiscal prudence and stronger tax collection on the back of buoyant domestic demand,” Tsui said.

The Aquino administration hopes to trim the budget deficit to P300 billion or 3.2 percent of GDP this year from a record level of P314.5 billion or 3.7 percent of GDP last year. It has committed to trim the deficit to two percent of GDP starting 2013 until the end of the term of President Aquino on 2016.

Standard Chartered reported that inventory restocking particularly of durable equipment resulted to a sharp 37 percent rise in gross capital formation in the first quarter of the year reflecting the booming investment activity in the country.

It added that remittances from overseas Filipino workers (OFWs) remained strong despite the tensions in the Middle East and North African (MENA) states as well as the disaster in Japan while foreign direct investments (FDIs) would pick up later this year in light of the public private partnership (PPP) scheme of the Aquino government.

“The launch of 10 infrastructure projects this year as part of the government’s PPP initiative is also expected to attract $1 billion of FDI inflows and support construction-related sectors,” Tsui explained.

Tsui said the investment bank sees the country’s GDP expanding by six percent in 2012 and 2013.

The Philippines posted its strongest growth in 34 years after its GDP expanded by 7.6 percent last year exceeding the revised growth forecast of five percent to six percent set by economic managers. It was on the verge of a recession when its GDP growth slowed down to 1.1 percent in 2009 from 3.8 percent in 2008 due to the full impact of the global financial crisis.

The Cabinet-level Development Budget Coordination Committee (DBCC) has set a GDP growth target of between seven percent and eight percent this year and next year.

Bangko Sentral Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said the country’s GDP would grow slower than expected this year as the economic growth targets were set by the DBCC prior to the tensions in the MENA region and the disasters in Japan.

“We think the economy will continue to grow this year. The government is projecting seven percent to eight percent although that projection was arrived at prior to the events at the MENA region as well as the earthquake, the tsunami and the nuclear disaster in Japan,” Tetangco said earlier.

 

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Hongkong based firm will invest Million Dollars for RORO - PPP & Natural Gas in the Philippines

Hong Kong firm Hopewell Holdings Ltd. is planning to participate in the government’s Public-Private Partnership (PPP) program by investing in a transport linkage between Luzon and the Visayas.

In an interview with reporters, Department of Trade and Industry Assistant Secretary Felicitas A. Reyes said Hopewell is eyeing a toll road and RORO (roll on roll off) terminal in order to connect the islands.

Hopewell, the flagship group of Chinese tycoon Sir Gordon Wu, has expressed interest to invest in toll roads and putting up ferry service for cargo trucks and buses to further connect Luzon – with San Juan, Batangas as starting point — to the central business hubs of the Visayas.

It would also explore other PPP projects and would identify specific projects interests in the long run.

Reyes, who is also officer-in-charge of the Board of Investments (BOI), said the focus of the Chinese group is the eastern seaboard, also known as the Spine of the Philippines. “We presented to Wu the road project and the idea was to combine the RORO or the nautical highway with toll roads.”

When asked if the project will present problems since it is not included in the current PPP list, Reyes said it could be presented to the proper agencies and will not be considered an unsolicited project.

The DTI said Wu has expressed willingness to put up a 200-kilometer, 10-lane toll road as well as a ferry service for cargo trucks and buses to further connect Luzon with the Visayas, specifically Iloilo, Bacolod and Cebu.

Hopewell had already invested several years ago in two power projects during the time of President Corazon C. Aquino.

Other Hong Kong-based firms that have expressed willingness to ramp up their investments in the Philippines are Luen Thai International Group, Youngor Group and Energy World Corp. (EWC), Reyes added.

The Luen Thai International Group is now in the process of stepping up production of its world-renowned Coach brand of bags by expanding its facility in Tarlac which will boost the Philippine vision of creating a global supply chain city that will link up with its other major plant in Dongguan, China. Aside from fashion apparel, Luen Thai has extensive interests in shipping, aviation, logistics, insurance, property development, tourism and high brands in other garments subsectors.

Meanwhile, the Youngor Group of Eddie Chung and Mark Pressly is planning to put up a $20-million state-of-the-art textile knitting facility as well as a possible $100-million cutting-edge weaving facility on top of its existing smart shirt facility in Clark which now boasts over 4,000 personnel.

EWC, on the other hand, is also in the stage of providing a possible solution to the enormous power requirements of the Tampakan Xstrata mining project. EWC has proposed setting a LNG terminal and storage-hub that will house a 500-megawatt gas-fired power facility. The gas tankers of EWC will source LNG from Papua New Guinea and other parts of Australia and Indonesia and can replenish its LNG facilities in the country if the need arises.

 

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Philippines Tops Global Ranking for BPO with 500,000 English-speaking college graduates per year

The Philippines has taken over the lead as the world's number one country for business process outsourcing and shared services, according to the 2010 IBM Global Locations Trend Annual Report.

Increasingly, multinational companies building an alternate support hub have been establishing their presence in the Philippines owing to the intrinsic strengths of the country's labour market, world-class telecommunications infra-structure and business environment.

With a 92% literacy rate and an abundant supply of nearly 500,000 English-speaking college graduates per year in relevant disciplines, the Philippines' affordable high quality workforce is valued by BPO firms for its strong work ethic, flexibility and productivity. Based on a survey of the McKinsey Global Institute, a relatively high proportion of Filipino finance and accounting professionals as well as life sciences professionals, researchers and analysis is suitable for work in a multinational organization and global work.

The Philippine IT/BPO industry spans across a wide range of competencies that include contact/call centers, business processing outsourcing (BPO), knowledge process outsourcing (KPO), medical, legal and other data transcription, film animation, software development, engineering and construction design as well as game or content development.

Top-notch telecommunications and low-cost real estate in major urban areas also contribute to the Philippines' global reputation as a BPO location.

Fiscal and non-fiscal incentives from the government have supported the growth of the Philippines' BPO industry.  IT BPO enterprises enjoy an Income Tax Holiday (ITH) of 4 to 8 years and a special 5% tax rate on gross income after the lapse of the ITH, in addition to a host of tax and duty exemptions for capital equipment, deductions for labour expense, 12% input VAT exemption on allowable local purchases of goods and services and employment of foreign nationals.

The Philippines' BPO industry was recognized by the National Outsourcing Association in London as the Offshoring Destination of the Year in 2010.  The Philippines first won the title in 2007 and again in 2009.

This year, the Philippines' sunshine industry is expected to yield some $11 billion in revenues or a 20% increase from the estimated revenue of US$9 billion in 2010 with over 500,000 employees.

In its IT-BPO Roadmap for 2011-2016, the Business Processing Association of the Philippines (BPAP) sees the Philippines' share of the global IT BPO market doubling to 10% by 2016 for $25 billion in annual revenues, if current conditions are sustained.

New locators share this optimism such as Tata's Consultancy Services of India, which recently opened its first Southeast Asian BPO center in the Philippines.  The growing list of industry players include Accenture, American Express, Citibank, Convergys, DELL, Hewlett Packard, IBM, JP Morgan Chase Bank, and Siemens, among others.

 

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US think-tank sticks to 4.8% growth forecast for the Philippines

New York-based Global Source Partners is sticking to its revised gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 4.8 percent this year despite the economic slowdown experienced by the country in the first quarter of the year.

In its latest market brief entitled “Philippines: Facing Stronger Head Winds,” Global Source said its still expects the country’s domestic output as measured by the GDP expanding by 4.8 percent this year despite the lethargic economic growth in the second quarter as shown by leading economic indicators released by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB).

“At this time, we are still sticking to our projection of 4.8 percent growth for the year, though it is obvious the economy now confronts stronger head winds. As we previously reported, the leading economic indicators index released by NSCB suggests an increased lethargy in the economy in the second quarter,” Global Source stated in the report.

Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Cayetano Paderanga reported last week that the country’s GDP expansion slowed down to 4.9 percent in the first quarter of the year from the revised 8.4 percent in the same quarter last year due to modest government spending and a slowdown in global trade.

The actual GDP from January to March was within the lower end of the GDP growth forecast of 4.8 percent to 5.8 percent set by the National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA) for the first quarter.

“GDP grew by 4.9 percent in the first quarter 2011, in line with our expectations as reflected in the previous quarterly outlook, and just barely hitting the tail end of the government’s 4.8 percent to 5.8 percent forecast,” the report added.

It explained that the GDP growth in the first quarter was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2009 and continues a trend of declining growth since the first quarter of 2010.

“As we predicted, a slowdown in government spending compared to the pre-national election quarter last year, as well as lackluster trade due to rising oil prices stemming from the political turmoil in Middle East and North African (MENA) states, were cited as the main culprits for the lower growth,” it said.

Global Source originally projected the country’s GDP growth slowing down to 5.4 percent this year but lowered the growth forecast to 4.8 percent last month.

The think tank said the tensions in the MENA region and the disasters in Japan would result to lower personal consumption.

“Additionally, the woes in MENA combined with the continued sluggishness in Europe, point to remittances remaining relatively flat in the short term, indicating it may just be a matter of time before it starts dragging down personal consumption,” Global Source added.

The Philippines posted its strongest growth in 34 years after its GDP growth expanded by 7.6 percent last year after slackening to 1.1 percent in 2009 from 3.8 percent in 2008 due to the full impact of the global financial crisis.

Earlier, BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said monetary authorities see the country’s economy growing slower than expected this year due to the political tensions in the MENA region as well as the disasters that struck Japan last March.

“We think the economy will continue to grow this year. The government is projecting seven percent to eight percent although that projection was arrived at prior to the events at the MENA region as well as the earthquake, the tsunami and the nuclear disaster in Japan,” Tetangco stressed.

The BSP chief said the country’s inflation is likely to peak either in the second quarter or third quarter of the year amid the escalating prices of oil and commodities in the world market.

In fact, the BSP sees inflation this month exceeding the higher end of the central bank’s three percent to five percent target on the back of the seasonal increases in school supplies in light of the opening of classes in June, remaining adjustments in taxi fare, and the impact of the Aquino administration’s fuel subsidy program

 

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Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) reports P 67 Billion new investments end May 2011

The Philippine Economic Zone Authority (PEZA) registered P66.956 billion worth of new investments as of end-May, 44.46 percent higher year-on-year, the latest data show.

PEZA Director General Lilia de Lima expressed more confidence that this year’s 10 percent target increase in investments, exports and employment within the zone is achievable.

Before delegates of the Philippine Semiconductor and Electronics Convention and Exhibition at the SMX yesterday, de Lima assured investors that problems connected to power and the high electricity costs will be resolved soon, or as early as next year, which should attract more locators to PEZA areas.

De Lima said investors still think highly of Philippine competitiveness as a location despite lingering concerns in the salary scale, which may be a disadvantage compared to other nations such as Vietnam, China, India and Indonesia.

Japanese manufacturers, however, remain bullish about the Philippines as investment site, she said.

De Lima recently met with 11 Japanese investors while in Japan, most are in the electronics sector, some in agri-processing and tourism. She expects more projects with an estimated worth of P1 billion from Japan will be relocating to the Philippines soon.

De Lima said the focus is to encourage companies that makes and supplies raw materials and components to attract more Japanese investments. “Difficulty in procuring raw materials and parts is the chief but only complaint cited by the Japanese, compared to what they cite in other countries in the region,” said de Lima, citing a JETRO survey called ‘Management Trouble for Japanese Managers in Asian Countries’ released last November.

 

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