2012 Philippines economic growth level up at 6.4 percent in Quarter 1

 It's more fun in the Philippines; it's more fun to invest in the Philippines.

In spite of shaky economy in the US and in Europe; Philippines  economic jump shows it's more fun to invest the Philippines.

The Philippine economy grew a faster-than-expected 6.4 percent in the first three months of the year, boosted by increased government spending.

The National Economic and Development Authority says the pickup from a sluggish 3.7 percent growth in 2011 also shows renewed business confidence in the Philippines.

The growth was fueled by a surge in public construction as the government splashed out on new roads and airports.

The government late last year announced a 72 billion peso ($1.66 billion) stimulus package to cushion the economy from Europe's debt crisis.

The services sector, which accounts for more than half of the economy, was supported by a rise in real estate and tourist arrivals.

The government expects full year growth of 5-6 percent.

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Philippine infrastructure planners have dreamt for years of building an elevated highway above the traffic-clogged streets of metropolitan Manila and linking the capital with the fast-growing cities and ports to the north and south.

Benigno "Noynoy" Aquino, the president, last week approved not one but two toll road projects across the city and instructed ministers to speed up the tendering process so they could be completed by the time he steps down from office in four years. He was hoping, he joked, for an easier journey to the beach.

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The proposed toll road projects, together worth 48bn pesos ($1.1bn), are adding to growing business optimism about the Philippines' medium-term prospects. Analysts say the country is on the cusp of its first investment boom since the Asian financial crisis of 1997, after more than a decade of political instability.

Many of the country's biggest conglomerates are rolling out their most ambitious spending plans in years to build shopping malls, office towers and residential projects.

The president is inviting private companies to build infrastructure projects, such as airports and light rail systems, through public-private partnerships that bind the government to help ensure investors recover costs and earn minimum returns through user charges or direct government payments.

Ramon del Rosario Jr, chairman of the Makati Business Club, a grouping of the country's biggest companies, believes foreign investors are also expressing confidence in the Aquino administration's efforts to tackle corruption.

"The main thing that has changed is this idea that we are now serious about good governance, about integrity in government, about fighting corruption," he said in a television interview, shortly after the Senate voted to remove the chief justice of the Supreme Court for failing to declare US dollar deposits in his asset disclosure statements.

Shares in listed companies betting big on infrastructure, including San Miguel and Metro Pacific – the two proponents of the highway project – have surged since late last year, making the Philippines one of the best performing equities markets in the world. Despite market volatility triggered by the risk of a Greek exit from the EUROZONE, the Philippine Stock Exchange index is up 14.8 percent this year after hitting record highs 19 times in the first five months of 2012.

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The Philippines is announcing first-quarter gross domestic product results on Thursday, and analysts predict that economic growth year-on-year may have accelerated to 4.6 per cent from 3.7 per cent in the fourth quarter, according to a Reuters poll.

Most economic forecasters say the Philippines will expand 5 per cent or more next year, giving the country a fighting chance of hitting the government's growth target of 7-8 per cent in 2016.

In the short term, however, the country's economic prospects are more subdued amid continuing sluggishness in the US and Europe, and a slowdown in China.

Exports, which are equivalent to about a third of the economy, fell 1.2 per cent from a year ago in March as deliveries to East Asia dropped sharply.

Some of the country's exports to China, such as bananas and other fruits, have been affected by the dispute between the two countries over the Scarborough Shoal reef in the South China Sea. However, Philippine trade officials do not expect the diplomatic dispute to affect deliveries of electronics parts and minerals, which Chinese companies need to produce other goods.

Mr Aquino also faces the challenge of improving regulatory capacity across government agencies and units, and resolving policy conflicts that are slowing down the approvals for large investments, say business leaders.

A case in point is plans by the Philippine unit of Xstrata' to spend up to $5.9bn in the next five years to develop one of the world's largest untapped mining deposits in the southern Philippines. The project is potentially the country's single-biggest inward foreign investment but is being stalled by a local government ban on open-pit mining.

Milagros Reyes, who heads PetroEnergy Resources, an exploration group, complains that investors often get caught between different government agencies with overlapping mandates. "We bring in foreign drill ships that are leased per day only to be told to wait for days for permits by maritime authorities" seeking to protect the domestic shipping industry, she said.

More Fun! Incredible Economic Jump of the Philippines in Q1 2012

Incredible! Amazing! While other Asian countries describe themselves with superlatives, the Philippines national ad campaign promises only "more fun."

Filipinos have reasons to smile. Asia's perennial underachiever is outperforming. This week saw more successes: Moody's upped its outlook on the country's credit rating to "positive," citing prudent fiscal management. An anti-graft drive notched a win with a guilty verdict in the impeachment trial of a former chief justice. And first-quarter gross domestic product growth of 6.4%, announced Thursday, defied most forecasts as well as the mood in the global economy.

But to build on the promise, the Philippines must deliver on three main growth drivers.

Business-process outsourcing is already booming due to strong English skills, cheap rent and low wages. A fondness for basketball and Hollywood movies is an advantage, too, when it comes to staffing call centers with workers who can make a cultural connection with U.S. customers. Starting from scratch a decade ago, the sector generated revenue of $11.25 billion last year. CLSA says that could double by 2015.

Government officials say tourism is a low-hanging fruit. They aim to triple arrivals to 10 million by 2016. A $5 billion gambling hub under construction will help. So too a surge in new planned hotel rooms and a rising tide of Chinese visitors, whose numbers were up almost 30% last year.

Arrivals hit a record high 1.2 million in the first quarter. But there are challenges. A regional economic slowdown would hurt. Manila's spat with China over potentially resource-rich areas of the South China Sea has raised diplomatic tensions that could stymie Chinese tourism too.

Poor infrastructure is a bigger issue. Security concerns at the country's airports have led to restrictions on its carriers. International aviation regulators won't let the nation's major airlines fly new routes to South Korea or the U.S.—their top two markets for visitors—until domestic airports improve.

Indeed, infrastructure spending is the third leg of the country's growth agenda. The government has pledged an extensive public-works program. The first quarter saw public construction jump 62% over last year. That pace must be sustained. Private investment activity also needs to pick up. RBS says weak private investment was a factor in disappointing first quarter construction overall, which was up just 0.3% from a year earlier.

Manila is more fun these days. But the Philippines must get serious on infrastructure to make the most of its time in the sun.

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Moodys upgrade rating of the Philippines 1 notch up -economy resilient

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE has raised the Philippines' credit rating outlook to positive from stable as the government continues to reduce the fiscal deficit and public debt.

The move sets the stage for a possible upgrade of the Philippines' Ba2 credit rating -- two notches below investment grade -- in the next 12 to 18 months, Moody's Assistant Vice-President Christian de Guzman yesterday said in an e-mail.

The debt watcher is slated to visit the country in June as part of its "regularly scheduled surveillance activities," he added.

Finance Secretary Cesar V. Purisima, in a statement, said: "This is one more step in our march towards investment grade, towards reducing the gap between the market rating and the credit rating, and more importantly towards a more sustainable growth path".

The Aquino administration aims to secure its first-ever investment grade credit rating by 2016 in order to lower its borrowing costs and attract more foreign investors.

According to Moody's, among the key drivers behind the positive outlook were the government's "faster-than-expected" fiscal consolidation and active debt management.

"The government of the Philippines has continued to demonstrate prudence in its fiscal management, as characterized by low budget deficits relative to its rating peers and a steadily declining level of debt relative to GDP (gross domestic product)," it said in a report released yesterday.

The government trimmed its deficit to ₱2.885 billion as of April, just 1% of its P279.1-billion cap for this year. It was also kept at P197.754 billion in 2011, two-thirds of the ₱300-billion ceiling.

Moreover, national government debt fell to only 50.9% of the GDP last year, surpassing the target of 51.7% and the 52.4% posted in 2010.

"Such outcomes are the result of expenditure restraint and improved revenue performance," Moody's noted.

Revenue collections, in particular, have grown faster than the GDP in the past five quarters, solely due to tax administration measures, it added.

"We expect revenue growth to improve further upon the passage of legislation aimed at restructuring excise taxes on alcohol and tobacco products."

Moreover, the Philippines has successfully improved its public debt by lowering borrowing costs, lengthening maturities and reducing foreign currency exposure, Moody's said.

The government successfully concluded a $1.5-billion offer of 25-year global bonds in January, securing interest rates of only 5% -- the lowest ever achieved by an Asian sovereign for bonds with a tenor greater than ten years.

It also repurchased $1.3 billion in high-coupon, foreign-currency bonds last October, cutting borrowing costs by settling the debt papers before their maturity.

Other than an improvement in national finances, Moody's also cited the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) for its "solid track record of inflation management."

"The sovereign's vulnerability to global financial market shocks has been reduced by the build-up of foreign exchange reserves, resulting in turn from robust current account surpluses and healthy capital inflows in recent years," it added.

The outlook on the BSP's Ba2 credit rating was likewise raised to positive from stable yesterday.

While concerns still remain over the Philippines' large debt stock, it is mitigated by institutional features such as automatic appropriations in the budget for debt servicing, Moody's said.

"In addition, an increasingly large bond sinking fund provides an adequate buffer that guards against near-term liquidity pressures," the credit rater explained.

And as the global economic environment remains uncertain, the Philippine economy is stabilized by remittance inflows which support the balance of payments and spur domestic household consumption, Moody's said.

Overseas Filipino workers remitted a total of $4.842 billion in the first quarter, posting a 5.4% growth year on year against the central bank's 5% projection.

In order to secure a credit rating upgrade, Moody's urged the government to continue the reduction of public debt and pursue reforms to increase revenues. It must also accelerate public spending in areas of the economy that would spur growth.

"These developments should also be accompanied by the continued health of the country's balance of payments and stability of the financial system," it said.

The Philippines, meanwhile, must be wary of macroeconomic instability which could trigger inflation. "A shift away from the focus on good governance" would also be detrimental.

For their part, economic managers hailed the impact of the Aquino administration's campaign of good governance.

"The message we have been trying to send ... is that fiscal performance can improve with good governance," central bank Governor Amando M. Tetangco, Jr. said.

"This positive rating action is therefore welcome and is a sign that Moody's is seeing the fruits of good governance on all fronts: fiscal, monetary and external."

Mr. Purisima added: "The Aquino administration will continue to focus on good governance as the basis for good economics, on fiscal sustainability, on macroeconomic stability and on opening up the country to business and tourism."

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Philippines Buys Back $1.3 Billion Worth of Overseas Bonds

The Philippine Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima said Saturday (October 15, 2011) that the government's successful buyback of some foreign-currency sovereign bonds should help the country's cause to win investment-grade ratings from credit agencies.

Around $2.2 billion of the eligible $17.7 billion of global and euro bonds have been offered by bondholders in the Philippines' latest liability management efforts, which sought to repurchase around $1.5 billion in foreign debt. The government accepted bonds with nominal principal amount of $1.3 billion and will pay bondholders a total $1.7 billion, including the purchase price and accrued interest.

Of the $17 billion debt that qualified for repurchase, about $2.2 billion of bonds were offered by investors, the government said. The nation will use mostly internal funds for the buyback, and the $1.7 billion figure includes accrued interest along with the bonds' original price, it said in the statement.

The $200 billion Asian economy is reducing its budget deficit, extending debt maturity and cutting its foreign- currency risks to achieve a higher credit rating. The administration of President Benigno Aquino had conducted bond exchanges and sold peso-denominated bonds to overseas investors since starting a six-year term in June 2010.

Purisima said the bond repurchase is "in line with our ongoing objective to rebalance our debt portfolio in favor of local currency. This should be supportive of our effort to obtain investment-grade ratings," he added.

The government expects savings of around $165 million in "net present value" from the buyback, Finance Undersecretary Rosalia de Leon said. Bonds due from 2013 to 2032 were accepted for purchase by the government in a transaction to be settled this month, according to the statement.

"This exercise highlights our strong liquidity and prudent debt management policy amid global volatility," Treasurer Roberto Tan said in the statement.

Despite recent upgrades from all three major credit agencies, Philippine debt still remains in junk territory. Fitch Ratings ranks Philippine debt a notch below investment grade while Standard & Poor's and Moody's Investors Service both place Manila's debt two notches below investment grade. A higher rating should save the Philippines, one of Asia's most prolific sovereign debt issuers, millions in debt services annually.

Purisima said the invitation to sell bonds back to the Philippines drew both local and international investors, and bonds accepted by the government have maturities spanning 2013 and 2032.

The bond repurchase will be financed with internal funds of the National Treasury. The government is currently offering to the public 10-year and 15-year peso-denominated retail treasury bonds, and hopes to raise over ₱200 billion (Php) Philippine Peso in the bond sale, the proceeds of which may also be used to pay for the repurchased foreign-currency bond.

National Treasurer Roberto Tan said the liability management exercise underscores the Philippines' "strong liquidity and prudent debt management policy amidst global volatility."

The transaction is expected to be settled on October 25, 2011.

For more updates, follow the Hikot's Philippines Economy Network.

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DB Singapore seen - Philippines economy will double by 2020

The Philippine economy may grow 80 percent larger within nine years as anti-corruption efforts build momentum and translate into greater foreign direct investment inflows, according to DBS Group.

In a research titled "Asia 2020," the Singapore-based financial service group said that over the coming decade, economic growth will be respectable and trending toward 6 percent.

Such growth will depend much "on policy and whether the large labor pool and resource endowment—which include gold, nickel and copper—can be effectively tapped upon," the paper said.

"We hold a cautiously optimistic view of the economy and expect reform to proceed at a moderate rate," DBS added. "By 2020, GDP will (in today's dollars) likely be 80 percent larger, and income levels 45 percent higher than at present."

The group said that the Aquino administration has so far done a credible job in introducing reforms focused on fiscal discipline and public-private partnership (PPP) on infrastructure investments as well as population management and anti-corruption reforms.

Amid criticism that the government is not spending enough, Malacañang has limited deficit-spending to ₱34.5 Billion in the eight months to August, or about a seventh of the ₱228.1 Billion recorded in the same period of 2010.

Also, Malacañang expects to auction off the first of big-ticket PPP projects before yearend.

"A new structure for project approvals and implementation is being established, which should complement the launch of PPP projects," DBS said. "Measures to counter corruption should raise investor confidence."

DBS noted that the savings rate has grown to 18 percent from 11 percent in 2004 adding that investment is beginning to follow the same path and that GDP should follow.

"In short, the reform momentum is building, and this should translate into greater FDI inflows and complement the rising domestic savings rate already apparent in the data.

Further, DBS said the country's young population could prove to be an advantage although the still-high birth rate remains a challenge, with an additional 19 million people seen within the next nine years.

"To some extent, resources have been spent in accommodating a rise in population at the expense of other investment, and this may have impeded GDP growth," DBS said.

PUPTF – Petroleum Task Force Mining Exploration

As the Aquino administration is poised to bet heavily in developing the country's oil and gas resources, an inter-agency task force has been created by Malacanang to oversee government approvals on upstream petroleum investments.

Under Executive Order No. 60 signed by President Aquino last September 30, 2011 it has been stipulated that the inter-agency Philippine Upstream Petroleum Task Force (PUPTF) will primarily watch over the implementation processes for the $1.0 billion fresh batch of investment for the Malampaya gas field project.

The EO creating the new task force basically amended Executive Order No. 254 which was the underpinning policy for oil and gas developments since 1995.

"It is in the interest of the Philippine government that projects such as the Malampaya Phases 2 and 3 are executed with no harm to people and the environment, with minimum disruption to the power supply of Luzon, and completed on time and within budget," the EO has emphasized.

The task force has to be chaired by Energy Secretary Rene D. Almendras and the membership will be completed by 17 more representatives from various government agencies. They shall include Executive Secretary Paquito Ochoa, Department of Transportation Secretary Manuel Roxas; Finance Secretary Cesar Purisima and Justice Secretary Leila De Lima, among others.

Aside from the Malampaya venture, the task force will also keep an eye on the new 15 petroleum blocks due to be auctioned by the Department of Energy (DoE) toward the end of this year.

Fundamentally, the role of PUPTF will be to "review, simplify and streamline the applicable rules, regulations and procedures" in upstream project implementations. These shall rope in "the efficient deployment of personnel, vessels, machinery, equipment, spare parts and materials to be used in petroleum operations."

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The next ASEAN tiger cited by Asia Inc & Business leader could be the Philippines

The Philippines has a most unique economy in the world which is highly dependent on domestic consumption that drives their economy that could be hardly hit for any possible global economic recession. Inspite of rich resources, Philippines did not rely on exports to drive a better and fast forward economy.

The Philippines now tagged with fresh opportunities in Asia, boosting and high grades gold mining, boosting of oil and gas exploration,  good political leader,  revived confidence from global investors and now named as to be Asia’s next tiger economy, potentially regaining the glory lost decades ago, according to a visiting regional business leader from Brunei.

Dato Timothy Ong, a leading Brunei businessman who founded and now chairs regional dialogue platform Asia Inc. Forum, said in a press briefing on last September 26, 2011 that he has seen signs that the Philippines could return to its goal of being the next Asian tiger despite staying at the bottom half of the 10-member Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) in terms of economic performance for years.

Ong is also the convener of ASEAN 100 Leadership Forum, which will be hosted by the city of Makati on Sept. 28-29, 2011 at the Makati Shangri-La. This year’s ASEAN meet aims to foster insightful and intelligent discussions on the future of ASEAN and how the region can emerge as one of the world’s significant economic blocs.

According to Dato Timothy  Ong, the Philippines can join the ranks of Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Hong Kong, the so-called Asian “tiger” economies or newly industrializing countries. He cited five reasons why the country, though a “dark horse,” or a sick man in Asia had the makings of the next move to be the next “tiger.”

The Chair of the regional dialogue platform Asia Inc. Forum cited 5 following reasons why the Philippines could be the next ASEAN Tiger as:

1.      The new leadership under President Aquino has promised to weed out corruption in the country, which has been creating a lot of optimism. It’s widely perceived that the high level of corruption in the country has driven up the cost of doing business.

2.      Mr. Ong said that the Philippines’ would be vast pool of hardworking professionals and skilled manpower, many of whom have been deployed across the globe. “With this wealth of human resources, it’s important to ask then why the Philippines aren’t more successful economically,” he said. Many countries had been dependent on Filipino Professionals and skilled workers to drive their economy like for example banning the Filipino to work in Taiwan will paralyze the Taiwan’s economy. Banning the Filipino to work in the Middle-east might paralyze their economy. Deporting Filipinos in (North Borneo) Sabah might paralyze the Sabah’s economy which the world knew how important the human resources are.  The continues development in the other north Asian countries had been dependent on Filipino skilled workers like for example the Billion Dollar projects of Korea’s builder Hyundai Engineering in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan which been dependent on Overseas Filipino Workers as highly skilled which the builder could not outsource such kinds from the local man power pool in the 2 ‘stan countries. Many Leading fortune 200 companies in the world are talents hungry but the Philippines have vast and awashing man power pool. Many countries take advantage of Filipinos for not just for cheap labor but also trustworthy multi-tasker and English speaker that could compete globally.

3.      The third factor would be the Philippines’ “centers of excellence,” Ong said, noting that the country has become a competitive hub for business process outsourcing. He likened the Makati central business district to a “First World” city in a Third World country.  “If the Philippines is capable of being first world in these centers of excellence, why can’t it be First World in every respect?” he said.

4.      Ong said the fourth reason would be the Philippines’ homegrown companies that were at par with the world’s best.  He cited fast-food giant Jollibee Foods Corp., international port operator International Container Terminal Services Inc. and the Ayala group of companies. “There is a sense of optimism that characterizes the country as a whole.  As the new government takes its steps in leading the country towards change, it may be able to experience higher standards of governance,” he said.

5.      Finally, Ong noted the Philippines’ “sharply improving competitiveness” as another factor supporting its aspiration to be the next tiger economy. He cited recent reports that the Philippines had jumped 10 notches to 75 from 85 in the latest ranking of the World Economic Forum. Ong said this happened only within the first 15 months of the term of the new president.

Meanwhile, Ong said ASEAN would likely partly meet its target to establish an integrated economic community by 2015.

“A One ASEAN is important for our collective future to accelerate the economic growth, social progress and economic stability in the region; to promote active collaboration and mutual assistance in economic, social, cultural, technical and administrative spheres,” Ong said.

“At the moment, Southeast Asia is like a big gated community where neighbors barely know each other. They know each other by name, they exchange pleasantries but they wouldn’t really go out of their way to have dinner at each other’s house,” he said.

Once integrated, he said, ASEAN could be a very influential bloc as it could become Asia’s third-largest economy next to China and Japan and the ninth-largest in the world.

The Philippines hinting to be a the second ASEAN tiger is so closed to achieve.

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