Philippines cited as Standout - 74% led over all ASEAN countries

Philippines cited as standout

THE PHILIPPINES is poised to be the standout in Southeast Asia yet again, leading the pack in terms of economic growth and investor confidence, Standard Chartered Bank has projected.

In a survey of more than 900 investors in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Manila emerged as the frontrunner among other key cities in the region, the British banking giant said in a report yesterday.

"The Philippines was the standout country in terms of the strength of on-the-ground sentiment… We expect the Philippines to see stronger investment growth this year, sustaining the strong momentum from 2012," Standard Chartered said.

Some 74% of investor-respondents in Manila expect to see better business prospects in 2013 compared to the year before, dwarfing scores in Jakarta (46%), Bangkok (44%), Singapore (44%) and Kuala Lumpur (41%).

The survey also found that investors in Manila are most worried about the European, American and Chinese markets this year. No one cited the Philippines as a concern. In comparison, 47% of investors in Kuala Lumpur said their own country worried them, followed by 43% in Singapore, 35% in Jakarta and 19% in Bangkok.

The peso is expected to get stronger, with 86% of investors in Manila saying they expect to see their currency appreciating against the dollar in 2013. Only 67% of investors in Bangkok, 52% in Kuala Lumpur, 50% in Singapore and 35% in Jakarta thought the same.

"We are optimistic that the Philippines will outperform the region and enjoy another year of strong growth momentum in 2013," Standard Chartered said.

It forecast that the country could grow by 5.8% this year and 6.1% next year, beating its 10-year average of 5.2%. The estimates, however, fall below the government targets of 6-7% and 6.5-7.5%, respectively. This follows the banner performance in 2012 when the gross domestic product (GDP) growth hit a stunning 6.6%, beating market expectations and the official goal of 5-6%.

According to Standard Chartered, the economy will likely be driven by domestic consumption yet again. Public and private investment should pick up too but exports could remain weak, acting as a "negative but limited drag on growth."

It also expected further progress in the public-private partnership (PPP) program, after eight projects -- mainly in infrastructure, transport and power -- were rolled out last year and others lined up for launch this year.

PEACE TO PROVIDE LIFT

Another upside to growth is the peace deal with the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, it added. Citing its studies, the peace deal could add 0.1 percentage point to GDP in its first year of implementation, increasing to 0.3 percentage point by the fifth.

Standard Chartered also expects the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) to keep policy rates on hold for now, then raise it by as much as 50 basis points by yearend. Rates could then be kept steady at that level next year.

Policy rates -- the benchmark for interest rates -- are at record lows of 3.5% and 5.5% for overnight borrowing and lending, respectively.

The rate hike could be prompted by an increase in the pace of inflation, it said. Higher energy and food prices, robust consumer spending and base effects could combine to push up inflation rate to 3.6% this year and 4% in 2014. These are well within the BSP target of 3-5% but much higher than the forecast full-year averages of 3% and 3.2% for 2013 and 2014, respectively.

The peso should remain strong, the bank said, underpinned by strong economic fundamentals. The local currency could climb to P39 against the dollar this year and P38 the year after.

The peso appreciated by some 6.8% against the greenback in 2012 -- one of the strongest performers in the region -- closing at P41.05 on the last trading day. So far this year, it has traded within the P40-to-a-dollar territory, much stronger than the P42-45 exchange rate assumed by the BSP.

Lastly, Standard Chartered said that reduction of the fiscal deficit is on track, especially with the recent increase in excise taxes on liquor and cigarettes, propelling the Philippines to bag its first ever investment grade credit rating.

The bank anticipates the deficit to fall to 1.8% of GDP in 2013 and 1.6% in 2014 -- against the cap of 2% for both years -- roughly equivalent to P238 billion and P266.2 billion, respectively.

"We expect at least two of the three main credit rating agencies to upgrade the Philippines to investment grade by end-2013…" it said.

"The case for investment grade is supported by a number of factors, including a resilient economy, a current account surplus, stable fiscal policy and the narrowing of the budget deficit."

The Philippines currently stands at one notch below investment grade with the three major credit rating agencies. It has a Ba1 rating with Moody's Investors Service and a BB+ rating with Fitch Ratings and Standard & Poor's. –

Read more in Business World Online 

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Philippines compromised for Allowing China Export to Europe used the Philippines to avoid TAX

Bloomberg reported 27 Nation bloc in Europe Extends Levy on Chinese Stainless-Steel Screws to Philippines.

The European Union extended to the Philippines a tariff on stainless-steel screws and bolts from China, saying Chinese exporters used the country to evade the levy meant to aid EU producers like Italy's Bontempi Vibo SpA.

The EU said Chinese exporters of stainless-steel fasteners shipped them to Europe via the Philippines to dodge the 27.4 percent duty. This is the outcome of a probe that also covered Malaysia and Thailand, where the EU concluded that no Chinese circumvention took place.

The import tax "was circumvented by trans-shipment via the Philippines," the 27-nation bloc said in a decision today in Brussels. The extension exempts two Philippine companies -- Multi-Tek Fasteners Inc. and Rosario Fasteners Corp. -- and will take effect after publication in the EU's Official Journal within a week.

The EU renewed the trade protection against China in January 2012 for another five years to help European producers that also include Bulnava Srl of Italy, Germany's Reisser Schraubentechnik GmbH and France's Ugivis SA counter below-cost, or "dumped," imports from the Asian country. The 27.4 percent levy is the maximum of three rates, which depend on the Chinese exporter. The lowest levy is 11.4 percent.

At the time, the EU also reimposed for five years anti- dumping duties as high as 23.6 percent on stainless-steel fasteners from Taiwan.

The extension of the maximum levy against China to the Philippines is the outcome of a circumvention probe that the EU began last June and will apply retroactively to imports as of that time, when the bloc also began to register shipments of stainless-steel fasteners from the Philippines.

Source: Bloomberg 

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WEF lists Philippines as one of tourism sector's “rising stars”

(Updated 11:54 a.m.) The World Economic Forum reported on Thursday that the Philippines now one of the world's "rising stars" and the most improved Asian nation in terms of travel and tourism.

The Philippines "is the most improved country in the region," WEF said in its "Travel and Competitiveness" report, noting the country's "comparative strengths" in natural resources, price competitiveness, and a "very strong" prioritization of the sector.

In the WEF ranking of 140 countries, the Philippines placed 82, up from 94 in the WEF 2011 list that  covered 139 countries.

"Government spending on the sector as a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product) is now first in the world, and tourism marketing and branding campaigns are seen to be increasingly effective," the WEF report read, referring to the Aquino administration's tourism initiatives and branding—"It's more fun in the Philippines"—campaign.  

"In addition, the country has been ensuring that several aspects of its policy rules and regulations regime are conducive to the development of the... sector," it added.

WEF listed better protection of property rights, more openness toward foreign investments, and few visa requirements for foreign visitors as areas where the Philippines fared well in terms of policy.

In a statement on the report's release, WEF called the Philippines along with Panama—whose ranking jumped to 37 from 52—as the world's "rising stars" due to " policy improvements supporting the [travel and tourism] industry."

The report noted the Philippines should improve on other areas to further raise its ranking.

"However, other areas—such as the difficulty of starting a business in the country, in both cost and length of the process—remain a challenge," the report  read.

"Moreover, safety and security concerns; inadequate health and hygiene; and underdeveloped ground transport, tourism, and ICT (information and communications technology) infrastructure are all holding back the potential of the economy's competitiveness," it added.

Last month, Tourism Secretary Ramon Jimenez said his department is targeting a bigger contribution of  tourism to the GDP and partnering with other agencies in improving travel infrastructure and policies.

The government wants to attract 10 million foreign tourists in the country. Last year, there were 4.3 million foreigners who traveled to the Philippines.

The WEF report, meanwhile, noted that Switzerland remained as the world's most competitive travel and tourism destination in 2013.

Germany maintained its second best ranking, while Austria inched up to the third spot from fourth place.

Conceived in 1971 by European business leaders, WEF is an independent international organization that aims to engage business, political, academic and governments to shape global, regional and industry agendas.

The Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Report 2013 assessed 140 economies based on the extent of  factors and policies in place to develop and make the sector more attractive. — Siegfrid Alegado/VS,

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