Bank of America-Merrill Lynch: Philippine Peso seen to hit 30:$1 next year (2013)

CEBU, Philippines -  The peso could strengthen to the 30-level against the dollar next year as investors continue to flood emerging markets regardless of the outcome of the US elections on Tuesday, an investment bank said.

In its latest research note, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA) said it expects the peso to average 41 to a dollar by the first quarter of 2013, before appreciating further to 39.80 for the rest of the year.

BofA's forecasts are stronger than the government's official assumption of 42-45 next year. The peso closed at 41.18 on Wednesday, the last trading day before the holidays.

A strong peso, while making imports cheaper, also makes export products expensive abroad, possibly denting demand. It also trims the value of remittances from overseas Filipinos.

"In our view, there is still further upside to EMFX (emerging market foreign exchange) in the near term. PMI data has been decent for September following the US Fed meeting, and we think investors will continue to push currencies higher as they await further confirmation of improved activity," BofA explained.

The US, considered as investors' safe haven, has been struggling to boost growth four years after the global financial crisis. Its central bank, the US Federal Reserve, said on September it is embarking on a third round of bond-buying program meant to flood the economy with cash to boost demand and growth.

The Fed announcement came after US manufacturing activity hit 51.5 in the purchasing managers' index (PMI) in September, similar from August. A reading above 50 indicates expansion.

A strong US manufacturing performance signals economic recovery for the world superpower and thus, should drive investors to invest in risky assets such as the peso.

The outcome of the US elections will also only have "neutral" effect to emerging market currencies like the peso, which BofA expects to trade at an average of 42 this quarter.

"Market pricing of an Obama victory is mild USD (US dollar) negative. (Mitt) Romney victory, USD positive," it said.

This indicated that the market may view a re-election of US President Barack Obama positively, giving them confidence to acquire risky assets and thus lowering the dollar's value. In contrast, a Romney victory is predicted to drive investors to safe havens like the dollar, contributing to its appreciation.

"Both a Romney win and Great Rotation pose upside risks to US rates. Historical evidence suggests this would be bearish for EM rates but neutral for EMFX overall – though with significant differentiation within it," BofA said.

In an effort to tame the peso's appreciation, the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) slashed its policy rates by another 25 basis points last Oct. 25, bringing them to new record-lows of 3.5 percent and 5.5 percent for overnight borrowing and lending, respectively.

BSP Governor Amando Tetangco Jr. said last Monday the central bank is looking at using its macroprudential measures to manage capital flows which drive the peso to strengthen. These measures include tweaking the bank reserve requirements, real estate exposure ceilings and single borrower's limit, among others.

PhilSTAR 

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Sports: Japan, Hong Kong, Philippines Volcano qualify for Sevens World Cup 2013

The Philippine Volcanoes celebrate their third place finish at the Singapore Sevens. The win also meant that they qualify for the 2013 World Cup in Moscow. Photo from Sean Moore

Japan came from behind to beat Asian rugby rivals Hong Kong 14-12 in the Cup final of the HSBC Asian Sevens on Saturday at the Padang.

Both finalists earn automatic qualification to the World Cup in Moscow next year.

They will be joined by the Philippines, who beat South Korea 22-19 in the bronze medal play-off to also earn a berth at the World Cup.

Hong Kong had just wrested the Asian title from Japan earlier last month at the Mumbai Sevens final.

Volcanoes qualify for 2013 Rugby World Cup Sevens

The Philippine Volcanoes made history on Saturday, defeating South Korea 22-19 for the bronze medal at the Singapore Sevens to clinch the final ticket to the 2013 Rugby World Cup Sevens in Moscow.

"It is just fantastic that we are going to the World Cup. This is the first time that the Philippines will be playing in a World Cup and it is huge feat for us," said team captain Harry Morris.

Singapore vs Japan during the HSBC Asian Sevens. Japan's Lote Tuqiri (center) evads a tackle by a Singaporean player during the HSBC Asian Sevens qualifiers held on Nov 2, 2012. Singapore lost both its games today, first going down 5-19 to China in the Plate semi-final, then 12-40 to Malaysia in the 7th/8th play-off. -- ST PHOTO: MARK CHEONG

"The third/fourth match was definitely closer than I wanted it to be. I give credit to the players for doing this for the nation," said Coach Al Caravelli. The American coach was the former coach of the US National Sevens Rugby Team before being tapped to head the Volcanoes in August.

Key tries for Gaz Holgate, Matt Saunders, and Andrew Wolff, along with a conversion by Holgate were enough to push the Philippines ahead of South Korea for the victory. The Volcanoes were up big, 22-7, in the first half before the South Koreans tried to stage a comeback in the second half. Their two tries were not enough to overcome the Philippine lead, though, as the Volcanoes took home the final spot in the 2013 World Cup.

"The match against Korea was exactly what you want from any game with that much on the line. Now we need to lift our levels further. We don't just want to be a number in Moscow; we'd like to make the Philippines and Asia proud of us," added Caravelli.

The Philippine squad started their campaign strong on Friday with a 33-0 domination of Guam. The team then failed to overcome Asian powerhouse Hong Kong in its second match, 29-12, to end up second in the pool A. The second-place finish in the pool stage led to a match up against China, the top ranked team in Pool C. The team squeezed through a tough Chinese squad, 14-7, to book a semifinals against regional leader Japan.

The Volcanoes started Saturday with a loss to Japan, 17-10, in the semifinal match. With only three spots up for grabs for the World Cup in Moscow next year, the Philippines set up a showdown for the final spot against the tough South Korean squad.

Fighting through

MAKING HISTORY. The Philippine Volcanoes are headed to the 2013 Rugby World Cup 7s after defeating South Korea at the HSBC Asian 7s series and snagging third place. Photo by Bob Guerrero.

Ranked 6th in the beginning of the competition, the Philippines started with a 33-0 victory against Guam before they were humbled by top-ranked Hong Kong 29-12.

The Volcanoes then faced China in the quarterfinals. After a nail-biting 14-7 win, the Philippines met Asian Rugby powerhouse Japan in the semi-finals and conceded a 7-17 defeat.

In their match against South Korea for third place, the Philippines needed a victory to secure a slot to the World Cup. The Volcanoes were leading 17-7 at halftime, before South Korea entered the second half with renewed determination.

South Korea clawed their way back up but the Volcanoes held strong, finishing with a close 22-19 victory.

The Rugby World Cup Sevens will be held in Moscow, Russia in June 2013.

GMA News, Straight Times, Rappler.com 

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Philippines, Indonesia drive wedge between India, Asean

India is mulling suspension of negotiations on services and investment with Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean). In a meeting of Commerce and Industry Ministry on Friday, Commerce Minister Anand Sharma has concluded that the options with India are limited given the non-cooperation from certain members of Asean like Philippines and Indonesia.

In a note approved by the Ministry on Friday, it has said that India's trade with Asean is growing at a healthy pace with a CAGR of 42 per cent achieved over the last two years. Exports to Asean have doubled from $18 billion in 2009-2010 to over $36 billion in 2011-2012, while imports have registered a growth of 28 per cent growing from $25.7 billion to $42.5 billion.

Given the background India would have expected a better services offer from all Asean members, but it looks that Philippines and Indonesia are not inclined. In addition, our position on investment also remains far apart, the note further added.

In view of this, the Ministry argued that options with India are limited. As a first option, the Ministry has suggested a suspension of negotiations on services and investment and resume these at a later date.

In another option, it has said that it can also mull concluding the services agreement on the basis of existing offers and conclude separate agreement with eight Asean member States and separate ones with Philippines and Indonesia. Third option could be to restrict the investment agreement to only an Investment Promotion Agreement given the wide divergence in positions on investments.

The India-Asean summit is set to start on November 19. A Prime Minister headed panel on trade-related issues on Friday directed the ministry officials to conclude agreement for further opening of commerce with the Asean before the summit. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh who will be attending the summit in Cambodia, sought an update from Trade and Economic Relations Committee on the progress of the talks with Asean to widen the existing Free Trade Agreement (FTA) beyond goods to investment and services. Services are of importance to India as they contribute over 55 per cent of the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

After implementing FTA in goods in 2010, India and the 10-nation bloc are engaged in negotiations to widen the pact. India wants service sector to be liberalised by removal of all the non-tariff barriers.

The Pioneer 

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