Investors Look to Thailand, Philippines as Indonesia Love Affair Fades

 

JAKARTA – As the Indonesia story seems to be souring, countries like Thailand and the Philippines are soaring.

Not long ago, Southeast Asia's largest economy – Indonesia – was considered to be the golden boy of the region, with investors pouring money into the country to capitalize on its recent consumer and commodity-led boom. More recently, investors have been taking some of their money out because they're worried that rising inflation, falling commodity prices and policies seen by foreigners as protectionist could knock the wind out of the archipelago's sails. Foreigners have pulled some $2 billion out of the government bond market and have helped push the Indonesian rupiah down.

As they reconsider Indonesia, though, some investors seem to be rediscovering other parts of the region — especially Thailand and the Philippines, which are generating more business buzz than any time in recent memory.

Over the last 12 months, Indonesia's benchmark index has edged up only 1% in contrast to the close to 20% jump in the Philippine stock market and a 13% rise in Thailand's bellwether index.

"To some extent, the euphoria baton has been passed to Philippines and Thailand and away from Indonesia," said Robert Prior-Wandesforde, the Singapore-based director for Asian economic research at Credit-Suisse. "Foreigners are becoming a little bit more nervous about the Indonesian story."

Investors are excited about the Philippines in part because they believe President Benigno Aquino III is making headway in his campaign to battle corruption, boost efficiency and increase tax revenues – some of the same initiatives that helped get Indonesia on track in recent years. Those initiatives have also helped lead the country to a series of credit-rating upgrades, boosting investor confidence.

In Thailand, meanwhile, investors have been buoyed by a strong rebound in the economy following last year's devastating floods, which temporarily shut down much of the country's industrial production. Thailand is on track to post 5.5% growth this year versus 0.1% last year, according to HSBC.

There also is a lot of interest in Malaysia these days, though mainly from government-backed funds, as investors eagerly follow a series of high-profile initial public offerings there. Those offerings include plantation firm Felda Global Ventures Holdings Bhd., which raised $3.3 billion on the local stock exchange in June in the world's second-largest IPO this year.

Indonesia's economy, to be sure, is still cruising along at a respectable clip. After expanding 6.5% last year, most economists think it can at least clock another 6% this year even with the persistent problems in Europe.

However, the country has seen a surge in imports – a common phenomenon in countries with fast-growing middle classes getting their first taste of more expensive imported goods. Some analysts fear a trade deficit powered by surging imports could be a sign that Indonesia's economy is overheating as an inability to serve local demand forces more imports.

The country could also be heading towards an inflation problem, economists warn. While inflation is less than 5% currently, analysts fear further growth could eventually trigger hard-to-control price increases as outdated and overstretched infrastructure adds to costs and an increasingly-emboldened labor force demands more raises.

Of course, it's not as if Indonesia's big competitors don't have some problems of their own. Among other issues, the Philippines is still struggling to improve its crumbling and overloaded infrastructure – a key demand of many investors before committing more money to the country. Thailand is grappling with seemingly insoluble — and potentially violent — divisions left over from the 2006 ouster of former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is living in exile. And Malaysia is facing an election by early next year that could be the most competitive and divisive in its history.

All of that may serve as a reminder:  There just aren't a lot of super-safe places to park money these days.

Written By Eric Bellman - Wall Street Journal

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A Graph of the Laziest Countries in the World – Philippines Not..?..?

To implement effective non-communicable disease prevention programs, policy makers need data for physical activity levels and trends.

In this report, we describe physical activity levels worldwide with data

• For adults (15 years or older) from 122 countries
• For adolescents (13—15-years-old) from 105 countries.

Worldwide, 31·1% (95% CI 30·9—31·2) of adults are physically inactive, with proportions ranging from 17·0% (16·8—17·2) in Southeast Asia (ASEAN) to about 43% in the Americas and the eastern Mediterranean. Inactivity rises with age, is higher in women than in men, and is increased in high-income countries.

The proportion of 13—15-year-olds doing fewer than 60 min of physical activity of moderate to vigorous intensity per day is 80·3% (80·1—80·5); boys are more active than are girls.

Continued improvement in monitoring of physical activity would help to guide development of policies and programs to increase activity levels and to reduce the burden of non-communicable diseases.

They found that 31% of adults do not get enough physical activity—defined as 30 minutes of moderate exercise five days a week, or 20 minutes of vigorous exercise three days a week, or some combination of the two.

Women tend to get less exercise—34% are inactive, compared with 28% of men—but there are exceptions and regional variations, as the maps below show.

Women in Russia, Croatia, Luxembourg, Greece and Iraq (to name a few) move more than their male counterparts. Malta wins the race for the most slothful nation, with 72% of adults getting too little exercise. Swaziland and Saudi Arabia slouch close behind, with 69%.

In Bangladesh, by contrast, just 5% of adults fail to get enough exercise. Surprisingly, America does not live up to its sluggish reputation. Six in ten Americans are sufficiently active, compared with less than four in ten Britons. These figures are worrying

From country-to-country, inactivity rises with age, is higher in women than in men, and rises in higher-income countries, according to a new study on idleness in "The Lancet". Here's a map of the world's sloth, via "The Economist". Countries in darker colors had greater recorded inactivity or laziness, defined as failing to reach 30 minutes of moderate activity a day.

Inactivity might rise with income, but some of the world's most inactive groups are women in countries with barriers to female employment, such as Libya and Saudi Arabia. Among men, Great Britain and Japan are reportedly among the most slothful or the laziest countries in the world, but Europe collectively reported walking more than any other group in the study.

The survey found a surprising degree of bustle in the typical American's life America, (the alleged king of couch potatoes?). Six in ten Americans were deemed "active," compared with fewer than five in ten Brazilian men, four in ten Japanese, and three in ten Argentineans. We're still a far way from Benin, Bangladesh, Mozambique, and Mongolia, where more than 90 percent of men got at least 30 minutes of moderate exercise five days a week.

Other factors that could affect the activity of a person include the following;

• Climate – People will minimize its activity if the weather is too hot like in the African and Middle Eastern Countries. For the tropical climate like the Philippines and other ASEAN countries, higher activity recorded during early morning and the evening and activities would become lesser during noon times.
• Culture – Middle Eastern Women who are restricted in their culture to find jobs would also affects the daily activity.
• Financial Activities – Inactivity might rise with income. The more a person is earning in his business the more he would lost its time to do other jobs than just making business and sitting in their office all the time.

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Philippines to acquire 10 new attack helicopters

The Philippines will acquire 10 attack helicopters starting next year in a bid to boost the capabilities of the poorly equipped military, an air force spokesman said Wednesday.

Italy, Britain, France, Russia and South Africa are all being eyed to supply the helicopters, Lieutenant Colonel Miguel Okol said, although he declined to specify which models were being considered.

The brand-new machines will upgrade the fleet of US-made MG-520 light attack helicopters that the air force has been using since the 1990s.

"What we are going to get are armed attack helicopters… that can carry more payload than the MG-520," Okol told AFP.

He declined to specify the cost of the acquisition but said the government had already allocated the required funds.

The new aircraft will be used for "internal security operations, border security and support operations," he said.

The Philippines is battling communist insurgents in rural areas throughout the archipelago, as well as Muslim extremists in the troubled southern regions.

In recent months tensions have also risen with China over conflicting territorial claims in the South China Sea, but Okol said the acquisition of the attack helicopters was unrelated.

The tensions with China have highlighted the weakness of the Philippine military, which is one of the most poorly quipped in the region, relying largely on surplus US equipment.

The Philippines has been refurbishing its ageing MG-520 helicopters, other military sources said.

The country has recently been stepping up its modernization efforts and plans to acquire new fighter-trainer jets and attack and transport planes by 2014, the defense secretary said earlier.

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