New Philippine military Chief will prioritize on Spratlys protection

 

Philippines' President Benigno Aquino III (L) and newly installed Chief of the Armed Forces of the Philippines Lieutenant General Jessie Dellosa salute during the Armed Forces of the Philippines Change of Command ceremony at Camp Aguinaldo in Quezon City, Metro Manila December 12, 2011. The Philippine Catholic Church and military, the two most powerful institutions in the country that have helped topple two previous leaders, installed new heads on Monday as acrimony over investigations into another former president intensified. REUTERS/ Cheryl Ravelo (PHILIPPINES - Tags: POLITICS MILITARY)

MANILA, Philippines (AP) - A battle-scarred general took leadership of the underfunded Philippine military Monday, vowing to bolster his country's external defense so it could adequately respond to "untoward incidents" amid territorial disputes in the South China Sea.

The 125,000-member Philippine military, one of Asia's weakest, has been struggling to modernize its dilapidated air force and navy and train its forces due to a lack of funds. President Benigno Aquino III recently said he would seek modern fighter jets from longtime ally Washington when he visits next year.

Army Lt. Gen. Jessie Dellosa, who took over the military leadership in austere ceremonies led by Aquino on Monday, said recent developments in the South China Sea - obviously referring to renewed territorial spats in the potentially oil-rich region  have made upgrading external defenses inevitable for the Philippines.

"It compels us to look into our maritime security deeply," Dellosa said in his speech. "Development of navy and air force bases and facilities to efficiently respond to untoward incidents is something we can no longer ignore."

Dellosa formerly was an army combat officer and was wounded twice while battling Muslim guerrillas and al-Qaida-linked militants in the southern Philippines. He also led an elite unit that helped Aquino's mother, the late pro-democracy Philippine leader Corazon Aquino, subdue coup attempts.

Filipino soldiers march in honor of new Philippine Forces Chief Lt. Gen. Jessie Dellosa during the turnover-of-command ceremony Monday Dec. 12, 2011 at the Armed Forces headquarters at suburban Quezon city, northeastern Manila, Philippines. Gen. Dellosa is the 43rd armed forces chief in the history of the Philippine military. (AP Photo/Bullit Marquez)

Dellosa replaced Gen. Eduardo Oban Jr., who focused on battling graft and corruption in the military during his stint. Dellosa said he would also wage "an all-out-war" against military corruption.

Already spread thinly while dealing with raging Muslim and communist insurgencies, the military began to focus on external defense especially after Filipino officials accused Chinese government vessels of repeatedly intruding into Philippine-claimed territories in and near the South China Sea's disputed Spratly Islands in the first half of the year.

Philippine and Vietnamese authorities also accused Chinese vessels of trying to sabotage oil explorations within their territorial waters, an allegation Beijing has denied.

China, the Philippines and Vietnam, along with Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei claim the South China Sea and its cluster of islands, islets, reefs and coral outcrops partly or in its entirety. The region is believed to be sitting atop vast deposits of oil and natural gas and also straddle busy sealanes.

The South China Sea has long been regarded as Asia's next flashpoint for conflict.

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Chinese Illegal poaching After the Philippines then Korea

A body of a South Korean coast guard officer is carried by his colleagues at a hospital

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) — A Chinese fishing boat captain stabbed two South Korean coast guard officers Monday, killing one and injuring the other, after his boat was stopped for illegally fishing in South Korean waters, officials said.

The Chinese captain pulled an unidentified weapon after officers from two coast guard ships boarded the fishing boat over suspicions that it was illegally operating in Yellow Sea waters rich in blue crabs, anchovies and croaker, coast guard spokesman Kim Dong-jin said.

A South Korean officer stabbed in the side was taken by helicopter to a hospital in the port city of Incheon but later died, Kim said. Also brought to the hospital were an officer stabbed in the abdomen, who was to undergo surgery, and the Chinese captain, who had minor injuries from the fight, he said.

South Korea's Foreign Ministry summoned China's ambassador in Seoul later Monday and lodged a strong protest over the fight.

2 weeks past, Chinese illegal fishermen captured in the Philippines for illegally poaching endangered sea green turtle and now detained in Palawan. The same incident happened year past and with court charges on progress when they pouched sea green turtle with the tag of the University of the Philippines in the West Philippines Sea near the Spratly Islands.

Last week in South Korea, Foreign Ministry officials said they asked the ambassador to make efforts to prevent illegal Chinese fishing from undermining bilateral ties.

Also last week, South Korean authorities raised fines levied on foreign fishing vessels caught operating in Seoul's self-declared exclusive economic zone, an apparent reflection of Seoul's impatience with a rising number of Chinese boats found fishing in the waters.

"Eradicating Chinese boats' illegal fishing in our waters is a most urgent task to safeguard our fishermen and fisheries resources," South Korea's Yonhap news agency said in a recent editorial. "The government should mobilize every possible means and continue the crackdown on illegal fishing."

Besides the captain, eight other Chinese fishermen on the boat were arrested and taken to Incheon, the coast guard said in a statement.

The coast guard says it has seized about 470 Chinese ships for illegal fishing in the Yellow Sea so far this year, up from 370 last year. The coast guard usually releases the ships after a fine is paid, though violence occasionally occurs.

Chinese fishing fleets have been going farther afield to feed growing domestic demand for seafood.

In 2008, one South Korean coast guard officer was killed and six others injured in a fight with Chinese fishermen in South Korean waters.

Last year, a collision between a Chinese fishing boat and Japanese coast guard vessels led to a diplomatic spat between the countries over disputed islands in the East China Sea.

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China’s President Hu urges navy to prepare for combat - Drill oil in Spratlys begin

Chinese President Hu Jintao urging his Military to prepare for a war

Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday (December 6, 2011) urged the Chinese navy to prepare for military combat, amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.

The navy should "accelerate its transformation and modernization in a sturdy way, and make extended preparations for military combat in order to make greater contributions to safeguard national security," he said.

Addressing the powerful Central Military Commission, Hu said: "Our work must closely encircle the main theme of national defense and military building."

His comments, which were posted in a statement on a government website, come as the United States and Beijing's neighbors have expressed concerns over its naval ambitions, particularly in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea).

Several Asian nations have competing claims over parts of the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea), believed to encompass huge oil and gas reserves, while China claims it all. One-third of global seaborne trade passes through the region.

Vietnam and the Philippines have accused Chinese forces of increasing aggression there.

In a translation of Hu's comments, the official Xinhua news agency quoted the president as saying China's navy should "make extended preparations for warfare."

The Pentagon however downplayed Hu's speech, saying that Beijing had the right to develop its military, although it should do so transparently.

"They have a right to develop military capabilities and to plan, just as we do," said Pentagon spokesman George Little, but he added, "We have repeatedly called for transparency from the Chinese and that's part of the relationship we're continuing to build with the Chinese military."

"Nobody's looking for a scrap here," insisted another spokesman, Admiral John Kirby.

"Certainly we wouldn't begrudge any other nation the opportunity, the right to develop naval forces to be ready.

"Our naval forces are ready and they'll stay ready."

State Department spokesman Mark Toner said: "We want to see stronger military-to-military ties with China and we want to see greater transparency. That helps answer questions we might have about Chinese intentions."

Hu's announcement comes in the wake of trips to Asia by several senior US officials, including President Barack Obama, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.

US undersecretary of defense Michelle Flournoy is due to meet in Beijing with her Chinese counterparts on Wednesday for military-to-military talks.

Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao last month warned against interference by "external forces" in regional territorial disputes including those in the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea).

And China said late last month it would conduct naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean, after Obama, who has dubbed himself America's first Pacific president, said the US would deploy up to 2,500 Marines to Australia.

China's People's Liberation Army, the largest military in the world, is primarily a land force, but its navy is playing an increasingly important role as Beijing grows more assertive about its territorial claims.

Earlier this year, the Pentagon warned that Beijing was increasingly focused on its naval power and had invested in high-tech weaponry that would extend its reach in the Pacific and beyond.

China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial last week after undergoing refurbishments and testing, the government said.

The 300-meter (990-foot) ship, a refitted former Soviet carrier, underwent five days of trials in August that sparked international concern about China's widening naval reach.

Beijing only confirmed this year that it was revamping the old Soviet ship and has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbors and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.

But the August sea trials were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier.

China, which publicly announced around 50 separate naval exercises in the seas off its coast over the past two years — usually after the event — says its military is only focused on defending the country's territory.

China's will start drilling for Oil in Spratlys December 2011 or January 2012

China is targeting to drill for oil in the Spratlys near the main island of Palawan Province, Philippines

Chinese offshore oil and gas specialist CNOOC Ltd will drill its first deepsea exploration well in a northern area of the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea) in coming weeks, a company official told Reuters news.

The china's president Hu urging for preparation for combat might be in line with their oil exploration in the Spratlys which might result to sparks opposition between claimant countries more particularly the Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia and Indonesia.

Although missing an earlier schedule by nearly half a year, the wildcat, an exploration well drilled in an unproven area, marks the beginning of the company's long-planned foray into the geologically challenging deep waters offshore China.

"981 will start drilling late this month or in January," said a company official, referring to the country's first and only homemade deepsea rig Offshore Oil 981, which is designed to operate at a water depth of 3,000 metres and to drill up to 10,000 metres.

Hong Kong-listed CNOOC and international partners including Canada's Husky Energy Inc and U.S. Company Chevron Corp will step up exploration of the deepsea waters in the South China Sea in coming years, with the first major production from the Liwan gas project operated by Husky.

The companies would mostly drill in the northern part of the West Philippines Sea (South China Sea), industry officials and analysts have said, staying away from politically sensitive waters to the south to avoid territorial rows with neighbors such as Vietnam and the Philippines.

The CNOOC official did not say where the first well would be drilled, but over recent years the offshore major had carried out seismic work in the Qiongdongnan basin and the Pearl River Mouth Basin and identified "big oil and gas structures", Chinese geologists said.

Husky Energy, which struck the sole major deep-sea discovery offshore China in 2006, said in September that its Liwan gas project would begin production in 2014, with daily output to reach 500 million cubic feet in 2015.

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Military Buildup in West Philippines Sea Spratlys - Red to break a war

December 6, 2011: The Philippines is feared of losing the Spratlys as it is the weakest country claimant in Spratlys in terms of Military capability. Most Part of the Spratlys is just within the Philippines's territory's 200 Nautical Miles Exclusive Economic Zone as the Spratlys archipelago is just within Philippines proximity but the country's capability to defend its territory is very low reason why neighbors are invading in which former Administration must be blame for stealing government money and less funding for the armed capability.  Blaming Ramos, Estrada and Arroyo is too late.

Anxiety has come and the Spratlys now is tagged as the most dangerous and restive sea. Though the Spratlys is the same geographic feature with the main islands of the Philippines as Archipelagic States that links the islands of the country; the government could not flex its power as china remains the most powerful and just a kick to sink the Philippines' military capability.

Though china is very far from the Spratlys as it is just within Philippines Proximity, Philippines is nothing as invading china is powerful which ready to compete with US powers.

Several countries with overlapping claims in the Spratlys of the Philippines territory which is adjacent to the Main Island Palawan, province of the Philippines  are reportedly tripled building up their military powers in the territory — a move that may endanger regional security and stability and looks like ready to broke a war.

China has intensify building up in areas within the Philippines Territory's 200 Nautical Mile Exclusive Economic Zone and Malaysia build an airbase in Layang – layang  near the  edge of the Southwestern part of Main Island Palawan which is also claimed by the Philippines 200 N Miles.

According to Indonesian Center of Democracy, Diplomacy and Defense executive director Teuku Rezasyah, Malaysia has two battleships, the Philippines one and another coming 1, China 27 and Taiwan 26 operating in the South China Sea.

He said Vietnam had several escort vessels operating in the area, while no data was available for Brunei's operations in the Spratlys islands.

"China's 27 naval vessels do not even include the aircraft carrier and submarines [it operates in the South China Sea],"

He said a Type 093 Shang class nuclear-powered attack submarine was observed at the pier under construction.

Significant construction is still underway at the Yalong Bay Naval Base on Hainan Island, including a fourth submarine pier at the southern section of the base, increased camouflage over the submarine pen and a bunkered rail line on the eastern side of the basin peninsula, he said.

"China has successfully massively reclaimed shores on Nam Yit Island and Southwest Cay Island, which borders the Philippines. China has made those hubs for its aircraft carriers based on satellite imagery," Rezasyah said.

He said that China was likely preparing for a worst-case scenario, with Nam Yit Island able to support three aircraft carriers.

China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam and Taiwan all have overlapping claims in the South China Sea, which is estimated to have oil and natural gas reserves amounting to 17.7 billion tons, making it the world's fourth-largest reserve bed.

The Paracels are claimed by China and Vietnam; Scarborough Shoals and Reed Bank  which described by Philippines president Aquinos as just like the Recto Avenue in manila as it is just in the side of few kilometers from the Philippines shore is claimed by China; Tungsha is claimed by China and Taiwan; the Spratlys are claimed by China, Taiwan, Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam, according to the ASEAN Secretariat.

According to Reza, Malaysia has built military bases on Layang-layang, a resort island that has a 1,356-meter-long airplane runway and is only 300 kilometers away from Kota Kinabalu in Malaysia's (Philippines' North Borneo) Sabah.

Northeast Cay Island, which is claimed by the Philippines, is integrated with the United States 7th Fleet. Although it is hard to physically verify it, "planes that are used in that area are the same planes used by the US 7th Fleet", he said.

Taiwan is building up its military forces in Tai Ping Dao Island (Itu Aba Island), which is also claimed by China, the Philippines and Vietnam, he said.

"The most fearful  for Taiwan is if China seizes Tai Ping Dao Island, which is claimed by Taiwan and China, because there will be no one who can do anything to help, not even ASEAN, thanks to the one China policy," Rezasyah said.

The territorial disputes in the South China Sea have brought the US into the field that is anticipating the risk of Chinese aggression possibly through its plan to deploy 2,500 US marines in Australia's Darwin, which is only 820 kilometers away from Indonesia.

Already, the US has 29,086 military personnel at its bases in South Korea and 35,688 military personnel at its bases in Japan, according to various sources.

The US also allegedly asked for Indonesia's help to counter China by asking Indonesia to use its newly granted F-16 fighter jets to help the US deal with China "if anything bad happens in the South China Sea", a source told the Post.

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6 Chinese fishermen charged for endangered sea turtle catch in Philippines Spratlys

MANILA, Philippines — A court in the Philippines charged six Chinese fishermen with poaching endangered sea turtles in proceedings Monday aimed at protecting threatened wildlife along the country's coastline.

Authorities discovered a batch of giant green turtles after intercepting the fishermen's speedboat in waters off the western province of Palawan on Friday, said military spokesman Major Niel Estrella. A joint team from the Philippine navy, coast guard and the Environment Department made the seizure.

The boat was likely attached to a mother ship that escaped after the fishermen were detained, Estrella said.

Nine of the turtles were already dead, but three were released alive into the waters after being tagged, Glenda Cadigal, a wildlife specialist at the Palawan Council, told The Associated Press.

The sea turtles, also known as Chelonia mydas, are often caught for food and for use in traditional medicine. They can grow as long as 5 feet (150 centimeters) and weigh as much as 290 pounds (130 kilograms). They are endangered because of overharvesting of both eggs and adults.

On Monday, authorities filed criminal charges under the Philippines' Wildlife Act and Fisheries Code at the Palawan Regional Trial Court in the capital Puerto Princessa, said Adelina Villena, chief lawyer for the government's Palawan Council for Sustainable Development.

If found guilty on all charges, the fishermen would face up to 24 years in prison. They were not requested to enter a plea Monday and a date for their arraignment was not immediately set, Villena said.

In Beijing, Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said China was "paying attention to the incident" and asked the Philippines to ensure the safety and legal rights of the fishermen. "The Chinese Embassy in the Philippines has sent staff to visit the detained fishermen," Hong said.

Last year, six Chinese fishermen also on a speedboat were arrested near the same area with more than 50 turtles, many of them already butchered and one bearing a monitoring tag of the University of the Philippines Marine Science Institute, said Cadrigal, the wildlife specialist.

The trial of those fishermen is still continuing.

"These kinds of practices endanger the lives of other creatures in the sea because marine turtles have their function in the balance of the ecosystem," Cadigal said.

Sea turtles feed on sea grass, which keeps the blades short and promotes their growth across the sea bed, and also provide sand beaches with nutrients, partly because of the eggs they lay that remain unhatched.

Palawan, about 510 miles (820 kilometers) southwest of Manila, is the nearest Philippine province to the disputed Spratly Islands in the South China Sea, which are claimed by China, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei.

Relations between the Philippines and China have recently soured after Manila accused Beijing of interfering with its oil exploration activities in the sea China claims in its entirety.

___

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. Associated Press writer Louise Watt in Beijing contributed to this report.

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China's first aircraft carrier starts second trial in West Philippines Sea

BEIJING — China's first aircraft carrier began its second sea trial on Tuesday (November 29, 2011) after undergoing refurbishments and testing, the government said, as tensions over maritime territorial disputes in the region ran high.

The 300-metre (990-foot) ship, a refitted former Soviet carrier called the Varyag, underwent five days of trials in August that sparked international concern about China's widening naval reach.

"China's aircraft carrier platform, after successfully completing its first sea trial in August, returned to the shipyard as planned for further refitting and testing," the defense ministry said in a brief statement.

"The work has been carried out and it set sail again on November 29 to carry out relevant scientific and research experiments."

Beijing only confirmed this year that it was revamping the old Soviet ship and has repeatedly insisted that the carrier poses no threat to its neighbors and will be used mainly for training and research purposes.

But the August sea trials were met with concern from regional powers including Japan and the United States, which called on Beijing to explain why it needs an aircraft carrier.

Tuesday's announcement comes against a background of heightened tensions over maritime disputes in the Asia-Pacific region, where China's growing assertiveness has put it on collision course with the United States.

President Barack Obama this month irritated Beijing with a drive to enhance the US role as a regional power, positioning Marines in northern Australia and pushing for a potentially transformational trans-Pacific trade pact.

Beijing sees the initiatives as intruding into its own sphere of influence, with the dispute over the South China Sea putting the two major world powers' differences into stark focus.

China claims all of the strategic area, as does Taiwan, while four Southeast Asian countries declare ownership of parts of it, with Vietnam and the Philippines accusing Beijing's forces of increasing aggression there.

The region is a conduit for more than one-third of the world's seaborne trade and half its traffic in oil and gas, and major petroleum deposits are believed to lie below the seabed.

The announcement of the carrier's second sea trial comes after Beijing said last week it would conduct "routine" naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean before the end of November.

China reportedly bought the carrier's immense armored hull -- with no engine, electrics or propeller -- from Ukraine in 1998.

The PLA -- the world's largest active military -- is extremely secretive about its defense programs, which benefit from a huge and expanding military budget boosted by the nation's runaway economic growth.

Earlier this year, China announced military spending would rise 12.7 percent to 601.1 billion yuan ($91.7 billion) in 2011.

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ASEAN - China to start talks South China Sea – Myanmar close tie to china

THE ASSOCIATION of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China will start talks as early as January preparatory to drafting a binding document governing activities in the South China Sea, an official said yesterday.

"A meeting between ASEAN and China will be held by January to identify the main elements in crafting the Code of Conduct (COC)," Foreign Affairs Undersecretary Erlinda F. Basilio said in a hearing of the Senate foreign relations committee.

"The meeting is scheduled by the first week or second week of January," she added.

Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert F. del Rosario earlier said that ASEAN members have agreed to draft a more binding document to guide activities in the contested area that will be presented to senior ministers in July 2012.

The Philippines, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan have conflicting claims over the resource-rich Spratly Group of Islands.

The COC will serve as the implementing guideline of a declaration forged between ASEAN and China in 2002 on activities in the area, renamed by the government as West Philippine Sea.

Ms. Basilio said the Philippines will continue to call for a multilateral approach to settle the disputes, a move introduced at the recent ASEAN Summit and Related Summits in Bali, Indonesia but was referred for further study.

"Despite China wanting bilateral approach, ASEAN claimant states want to push through with the multilateral approach," she said.

China has rejected multilateral negotiations on the issue, preferring instead to talk individually with tiny claimants.

The situation has prompted the United State to reinforce its presence in Asia-Pacific through a series of meetings with treaty partners, including the Philippines, prior to attending the Bali forum.

ASEAN members Myanmar and Cambodia, however, have expressed disagreement with the multilateral approach reportedly due to the influence of China.

The Senate committee on foreign relations was also briefed on other issues raised in the ASEAN Summit and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Honolulu, Hawaii, both held this month.

China, Burma Strengthen Military Cooperation

China's vice president says his country and Burma should strengthen their military ties.  Vice President Xi Jinping hailed China's friendship with Burma in a meeting in Beijing Monday with Burmese armed forces commander Min Aung Hlaing. The meeting comes days before Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is to make an historic trip to Burma.

China's official Xinhua news agency quotes Vice President Xi Jinping as proposing that the militaries of the two nations "enhance, exchange and deepen cooperation." Xinhua also quotes the Chinese leader as saying the friendship that was forged by leaders of older generations has endured changes in the international arena."

Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei was asked whether the China-Burma meeting was in any way related to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's historic trip to Burma later this week.

Hong says China and Burma maintain exchange and cooperation in various fields, but would not say more about the meeting than what was in the official statement.

Ren Yue is a Chinese foreign policy researcher and visiting professor at Hong Kong University. "I think that China is definitely having a very close watch about the recent moves, that Secretary of State Clinton visited Burma, or Myanmar. That definitely is something the Chinese government is watching closely and with concern," he said.

Ren says China has had problems with other southeast Asian nations - especially over territorial disputes in the South China Sea - but has seen Burma as one of its staunchest friends in the region. He adds that both Burma and China have been criticized for their closed political systems, but now Burma is starting to reform.

"The Chinese government also wants to start political reform, but it is not fast enough. I think that Clinton's visit could force Chinese leaders to think about something along those lines, democratization, political reform, in Chinese words," Ren stated.

Since last year, Burma has held elections and freed democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest. Burma also recently risked angering China by shutting down a large and unpopular hydroelectric dam project.

Secretary Clinton's trip to Burma follows President Barack Obama's tour of Asian nations.  Researchers have said these trips are aimed at reinforcing U.S. influence in the region amid growing concerns about the rise of China.

Ren says he thinks, at this point, China is watching closely, but does not yet feel threatened.

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COMMENTARY: Is a Nuclear War with China Possible?

BY LAWRENCE S. WITTNER

While nuclear weapons exist, there remains a danger that they will be used.  After all, for centuries national conflicts have led to wars, with nations employing their deadliest weapons.  The current deterioration of U.S. relations with China might end up providing us with yet another example of this phenomenon.

The gathering tension between the United States and China is clear enough.  Disturbed by China's growing economic and military strength, the U.S. government recently challenged China's claims in the South China Sea, increased the U.S. military presence in Australia, and deepened U.S. military ties with other nations in the Pacific region.  According to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, the United States was "asserting our own position as a Pacific power."

But need this lead to nuclear war?

Not necessarily.  And yet, there are signs that it could.  After all, both the United States and China possess large numbers of nuclear weapons.  The U.S. government threatened to attack China with nuclear weapons during the Korean War and, later, during the conflict over the future of China's offshore islands, Quemoy and Matsu.  In the midst of the latter confrontation, President Dwight Eisenhower declared publicly, and chillingly, that U.S. nuclear weapons would "be used just exactly as you would use a bullet or anything else."

Of course, China didn't have nuclear weapons then.  Now that it does, perhaps the behavior of national leaders will be more temperate.  But the loose nuclear threats of U.S. and Soviet government officials during the Cold War, when both nations had vast nuclear arsenals, should convince us that, even as the military ante is raised, nuclear saber-rattling persists.

Some pundits argue that nuclear weapons prevent wars between nuclear-armed nations; and, admittedly, there haven't been very many—at least not yet.  But the Kargil War of 1999, between nuclear-armed India and nuclear-armed Pakistan, should convince us that such wars can occur.  Indeed, in that case, the conflict almost slipped into a nuclear war.  Pakistan's foreign secretary threatened that, if the war escalated, his country felt free to use "any weapon" in its arsenal.  During the conflict, Pakistan did move nuclear weapons toward its border, while India, it is claimed, readied its own nuclear missiles for an attack on Pakistan.

At the least, though, don't nuclear weapons deter a nuclear attack?  Do they?  Obviously, NATO leaders didn't feel deterred, for, throughout the Cold War, NATO's strategy was to respond to a Soviet conventional military attack on Western Europe by launching a Western nuclear attack on the nuclear-armed Soviet Union.  Furthermore, if U.S. government officials really believed that nuclear deterrence worked, they would not have resorted to championing "Star Wars" and its modern variant, national missile defense.  Why are these vastly expensive—and probably unworkable—military defense systems needed if other nuclear powers are deterred from attacking by U.S. nuclear might?

Of course, the bottom line for those Americans convinced that nuclear weapons safeguard them from a Chinese nuclear attack might be that the U.S. nuclear arsenal is far greater than its Chinese counterpart.  Today, it is estimated that the U.S. government possesses over five thousand nuclear warheads, while the Chinese government has a total inventory of roughly three hundred.  Moreover, only about forty of these Chinese nuclear weapons can reach the United States.  Surely the United States would "win" any nuclear war with China.

But what would that "victory" entail?  A nuclear attack by China would immediately slaughter at least 10 million Americans in a great storm of blast and fire, while leaving many more dying horribly of sickness and radiation poisoning.  The Chinese death toll in a nuclear war would be far higher.  Both nations would be reduced to smoldering, radioactive wastelands.  Also, radioactive debris sent aloft by the nuclear explosions would blot out the sun and bring on a "nuclear winter" around the globe—destroying agriculture, creating worldwide famine, and generating chaos and destruction.

Moreover, in another decade the extent of this catastrophe would be far worse.  The Chinese government is currently expanding its nuclear arsenal, and by the year 2020 it is expected to more than double its number of nuclear weapons that can hit the United States.  The U.S. government, in turn, has plans to spend hundreds of billions of dollars "modernizing" its nuclear weapons and nuclear production facilities over the next decade.

To avert the enormous disaster of a U.S.-China nuclear war, there are two obvious actions that can be taken.  The first is to get rid of nuclear weapons, as the nuclear powers have agreed to do but thus far have resisted doing.  The second, conducted while the nuclear disarmament process is occurring, is to improve U.S.-China relations.  If the American and Chinese people are interested in ensuring their survival and that of the world, they should be working to encourage these policies.

* * *

Wittner is Emeritus Professor of History at the State University of New York/Albany. His latest book is "Confronting the Bomb: A Short History of the World Nuclear Disarmament Movement" (Stanford University Press). This commentary was distributed by PeaceVoice a program of the Oregon Peace Institute, Portland, OR.

http://www.peacevoice.info/

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South Korea – the Philippines Strengthen ties – SKorea President State Visit -Philippines

The Philippines and South Korea will sign on Monday agreements envisioned to further strengthen overall ties between the two countries.

South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, who arrived in Manila on Sunday afternoon, will officially begin his state visit with a wreath-laying ceremony at the Rizal Shrine in Luneta before proceeding to Malacañang for a meeting with President Aquino.

The two leaders are expected to discuss, among other things, trade and investment opportunities, and tourism, Deputy Presidential Spokesman Abigail Valte said in an interview over dzRB, the government radio, on Sunday.

"There are many tourists from South Korea who come to the Philippines. We also have common interests in trade and investment. We know that the Republic of Korea is our development partner, particularly in agriculture and infrastructure, so we expect the flow of discussions to go around the topics that were mentioned," Valte said.

Filipino businessmen are hoping the state visit would result in a joint communiqué with South Korea in the form of an accelerated version of an economic partnership agreement (EPA).

The joint communiqué should outline initiatives that will further the exchange of trade, investments and people between the two countries, said Donald Dee, vice chairman and treasurer of the Philippine Chamber of Commerce and Industry (PCCI).

"We don't need to negotiate an EPA with Korea because we are already linked in several areas and we already have the Asean-Korea Free Trade Area [AKFTA]. We no longer have barriers when it comes to tariffs and manufacturing. We only need to have a joint communiqué," Dee told the BusinessMirror.

The document, Dee said, should focus on non-tariff barriers, investments, services and a mutual recognition agreement.

Currently, the country's EPA is with Japan. On a regional basis as part of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), however, the Philippines has free-trade agreements with Japan, South Korea, China, India, Australia and New Zealand.

Based on the study of the Universal Access to Competitiveness and Trade, which serves as the PCCI think-tank, Dee said merchandise trade between the two countries increased rapidly since the forging of the AKFTA in 2007. Exports to South Korea are up 23 percent and it is now the eighth-largest trading partner of the Philippines.

South Korean investments, on the other hand, went up from less than $100 million in 2007 to $600 million in 2010. Among the top South Korean investors in the Philippines are Hanjin Heavy Industries and Construction, Samsung Electronics Philippines Manufacturing Corp., and Daelim Industrial Co. Ltd.

On the tourism side, Dee said Koreans make up 22 percent of the total foreign visitors to the Philippines.

With the existing complementarities economically and socially, Dee said the Philippines and South Korea could skip the tedious part of negotiating an EPA and proceed to the forging of a joint communiqué.

"We only need to list down all our matching industries and then reconcile our ambitions and expectations," Dee said.

The joint communiqué, he said, should state that South Korea and the Philippines will work together to enhance the economies of both countries.

The two countries will then separately outline their respective commitments on how their ambitions will be achieved in the areas of trade, investments, services and mutual recognition for the practice of professions.

Coinciding with the visit of Mr. Lee, a former CEO of Hyundai Engineering and Construction, the government has arranged a meeting between the PCCI and the South Korean business delegation at the Manila Hotel on Monday, which the South Korean leader will keynote. President Lee flew in at 1:30 p.m. on Sunday accompanied by his wife, Kim Myun-Ok.

Apart from his Palace engagements, Mr. Lee will also attend a town hall meeting at the Ateneo de Manila University before returning to Malacañang for a state dinner in his honor.

He will depart Manila on Tuesday morning.

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Clinton warns against intimidation in South China Sea dispute

U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on Wednesday urged claimants to the South China Sea not to resort to intimidation to push their cause in the potentially oil-rich waters, an indirect reference to China ahead of a regional leaders' summit.

Clinton reiterated that the United States wanted a candid discussion of the maritime dispute, which an Australian think tank warned earlier this year could lead to war, when the leaders gather in Bali, Indonesia, this week.

However, China says it does not want the issue discussed, putting it at loggerheads with the United States once again after they exchanged barbs over trade and currency at last week's meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation forum in Hawaii.

"The United States does not take a position on any territorial claim, because any nation with a claim has a right to assert it," Clinton said in Manila, while marking the 60th anniversary of the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty.

"But they do not have a right to pursue it through intimidation or coercion. They should be following international law, the rule of law, the U.N. Convention on Law of the Sea."

She said disputes in the sea lanes should be resolved through the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which defined rules on how countries can use the world's oceans and their resources.

That could embolden Southeast Asia's hand against China, which has said it would not submit to international arbitration over competing claims to the area, believed to be rich in natural resources and a major shipping lane.

China says it has historical sovereignty over the South China Sea and so supersedes claims of other countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei.

"Introducing a contentious subject into the meeting would only affect the atmosphere of cooperation and mutual trust, damaging the hard-won setting of healthy development in the region," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Weimin said on Wednesday. "That's is beyond any doubt."

Beijing bristles at what it calls U.S. interference and has blamed the maritime tensions on U.S. trouble making.

Estimates of proven and undiscovered oil reserves in the South China Sea range from 28 billion barrels of oil to as high as 213 billion barrels, U.S. figures showed in 2008. Gas deposits could be as high as 3.8 trillion cubic metres, the U.S. Geological Survey has estimated. Both would supply China with energy supplies for decades if proven.

China's resource needs and its risk-taking behaviour over staking its claim in the increasingly crowded sea lanes of the maritime region raise the possibility of armed conflict that could draw in the United States and other powers, the Lowy Institute said in a report in June.

Tensions flared again earlier this year with concerns raised over China's enforcement of its claim in areas also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines, including the cutting of cables on survey ships, threats to ram some vessels and breaches of airspace by military aircraft.

UNITY

On Tuesday, the Philippines criticised its South East Asian neighbours for failing to take a united stand against China.

"ASEAN is now at a critical junction of playing a positive and meaningful role to contribute in the peaceful resolution of the disputes in the South China Sea," said Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario.

Manila wants ASEAN to be able to help resolve sensitive issues without letting them affect bilateral or multilateral relations, he said.

Smaller Southeast Asian claimants view a U.S. presence and a multilateral approach to negotiations as strengthening their stance against China's all-encompassing claim on the sea.

ASEAN and China approved guidelines this year to make a code of conduct agreement signed in 2002 more concrete as they sought to cool tensions.

Indonesia's foreign minister, Marty Natalegawa, suggested claimants to the maritime region should pursue the code of conduct negotiations while apparently chiding China and the United States.

"ASEAN now has a clear scenario and approach. So ASEAN countries will not let the Southeast Asia region become a competition arena for countries who consider themselves as big powers, whoever or whenever they maybe," he told a press briefing.

"We have an interest to make a clear code of conduct (for the South China Sea) so that concerns from non-Southeast Asian countries can be reflected based on the interest of ASEAN countries' national interest," he said.

It was important for ASEAN to promote a break from "a self-fulfilling vicious circle of action and counter-reaction," he added.

Washington says its interest in the rift is to make sure a shipping lane that carries some $5 trillion in international trade a year is kept open and can be freely navigated.

"President Obama will reaffirm our national interest in the maintenance of peace and security in the region and internationally," Clinton said.

She said that included freedom of navigation, the rule of law and unimpeded lawful commerce, with the United States seeing UNCLOS as the overriding framework for territorial disputes.

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Philippines Sandwiched by 2 competing superpowers US-China

Philippines’ President Benigno Aquino III will discuss the disputes over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) and steps on further strengthening the long-standing economic and defense relations between the Philippines and the United States during his meeting with US President Barrack Obama in Bali, Indonesia where the 19th Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) Summit is being held.

The President left at around 8 a.m. on Thursday for Indonesia from the tarmac of the 250th Presidential Airlift Wing at the Villamor Airbase in Paranaque City (Metro Manila).

In his pre-departure speech, the President cited the importance of the regional bloc, which was established in 1967 and is aimed at the "creation of a cohesive, peaceful, stable and resilient region".

In a press briefing at the Courtyard Mariott Bali Nusa Dua Hotel, Presidential Communications Development and Strategic Planning Office Secretary Ramon Carandang said that the United States has been exerting efforts to re-engage itself with the countries in the Asia-Pacific region, including the Philippines, which the world superpower considers as important partners in economic and political development.

"I think what's very clear is that the United States wants to re-engage itself in the Asia Pacific region, especially now that they're winding down their commitments to other parts of the world.

The Asia-Pacific region has become much more important to them economically and politically. And what we're seeing are manifestations of that increased importance that Asia-Pacific, including the Philippines, is taking and I am sure the discussions between the two leaders will hew to that general theme," he said.

When asked if the Philippines will seek security assistance from the United States on the dispute in the West Philippine Sea, Carandang said that the government has been considering that.

"I think we've been doing what we can already with the West Philippine Sea issue and the American presence here, and the fact that they agree with our position is something that we find helpful," he said.

Carandang added that the government welcomes any assistance from the US, specifically in increasing the maritime defense capabilities of the Philippines.

The bilateral talk betweens President Aquino and Obama is scheduled on Friday as part of the 19th Asean Summit and Related Summits.

Also attending the event are the heads of state of Asean's dialogue partners including Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao, Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard, Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda and United Nations Secretary General BanKi-moon, among others.

The Asean will widen on Saturday into the East Asia Summit which takes in Australia, China, India, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand, and this year welcomes the United States and Russia.

A major issue

The maritime dispute with China and a debate over whether to reward Myanmar for fledgling reforms are expected to dominate talks during the 19th Asean Summit.

With the eurozone lurching through a debt crisis, raising the specter of Asean's export markets drying up, there is also pressure on the 10-member bloc to speed up the integration of its potentially huge common market.

Obama is coming to Bali as the US rolls out a diplomatic campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power, including plans for up to 2,500 Marines to be deployed in Australia.

Its more robust role, which smaller Asian states welcome as a counterbalance to China, has caused friction with the two powers trading warnings that set the stage for a confrontation at the East Asia Summit.

The US has signaled that it will raise the issue of China's territorial claims over the West Philippine Sea, with its strategic shipping lanes and rich oil and mineral reserves, despite Beijing saying that the topic should be off-limits.

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on Wednesday on a visit to the Philippines, which along with Vietnam has complained that China is becoming more aggressive in asserting its claims, that threats were unacceptable.

"Any nation with a claim has a right to exert it, but they do not have a right to pursue it through intimidation or coercion," she said.

The Philippines, which has led calls for ASEAN to build a united front against China over the dispute, was slammed by China's state-run Global Times on Thursday, which said that it should be punished with trade boycotts and travel bans.

"The way that China punishes the Philippines should not be overdone or elicit regional fears toward China, but it must make the Philippines pay the price," said the paper, known for its nationalistic stance.

Diplomats in Bali have expressed concern that Southeast Asian nations may get squeezed between the competing interests of the two big world powers.

"We must ensure the stability and security of our region," Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono said in an opening speech.

"Asean must continue to play a proactive role to facilitate and engage itself in the resolution of issues," he said in an apparent reference to the West Philippine Sea dispute.

Bali, a resort island that is normally a haven for tourism and relaxation, has been transformed for the event, with six warships patrolling off the beaches and 7,000 police and soldiers providing a blanket security presence.

Myanmar issue

The Asean summit also sees the diplomatic debut of Myanmar's new military-backed government, which has surprised observers with a string of conciliatory moves since it was sworn in eight months ago.

The leaders are set to formally approve a plan to allow Myanmar to chair the regional bloc in 2014, despite objections from the United States which said that it was premature.

Myanmar's Information Minister Kyaw Hsan called on the US to recognize what he said were "irreversible" reforms and abandon its economic sanctions, in an interview with the Wall Street Journal published on Thursday.

Kyaw Hsan blamed the sanctions for the country's lack of development and said that they forced Myanmar to be reliant on Chinese companies.

"When we are striving for development, we cannot be choosers -- we have accepted what is best for the country," he added.

The nominally civilian government has held direct talks with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi, freed 200 dissidents, frozen work on an unpopular mega-dam and passed a law giving workers the right to strike.

But rights campaigners say those measures could easily be reversed and that handing Myanmar the diplomatic prize could remove the incentive for more fundamental change in a nation still accused of serious rights abuses.

Asean's leaders will also review stuttering progress on an ambitious plan for a common and barrier-free market by 2015, a task made more urgent by the crisis in major export markets in Europe.

The gaps between the region's economies--which range from the wealthy city-state of Singapore to underdeveloped Laos and Myanmar -- are a formidable barrier to establishing a common market of more than 600 million people.

But Indonesian Trade Minister Gita Wirjawan said on Wednesday that the economic woes in Europe and the US presented an opportunity for Asean to "behave more collectively".

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